Dickson Watts a trend following father:
Before entering on our inquiry, before considering the rules of our art, we will examine the subject in the abstract. Is speculation right? It may be questioned, tried by the highest standards, whether any trade where an exact equivalent is not given can be right. But as society is now organized speculation seems a necessity.
Is there any difference between speculation and gambling? The terms are often used interchangeably, but speculation presupposes intellectual effort; gambling, blind chance. Accurately to define the two is difficult; all definitions are difficult. Wit and humor, for instance, can be defined; but notwithstanding the most subtle distinction, wit and humor blend, run into each other. This is true of speculation and gambling. The former has some of the elements of chance; the latter some of the elements of reason. We define as best we can. Speculation is a venture based upon calculation. Gambling is a venture without calculation. The law makes this distinction; it sustains speculation and condemns gambling.
All business is more or less speculation. The term speculation, however, is commonly restricted to business of exceptional uncertainty. The uninitiated believe that chance is so large a part of speculation that it is subject to no rules, is governed by no laws.