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Highlights from Pres. Trump at the Economic Club of New York

  
Analysis, Politics
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Speaking at the Economic Club of New York

  • Jobs were not plentiful when he took over as President
  • The experts said they had no choice but to accept stagnation
  • I knew working together we could make America even greater
  • Fed moved rates higher far too fast and lowered rates far too low
  • US is competing against other countries and the Federal Reserve does not let us compete
  • Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage to other countries
  • If we had a Federal Reserve that work with us the US stock market would be up by another 25%
  • last year GDP growth match the highest growth rate in over a decade
  • we want companies to be in America
  • The US has tremendous economic potential
  • Says he thinks US can bring down tax rates further
  • Corporate tax rate could go lower
  • US is pursuing energy independence
  • China has taken advantage of the US because of its WTO designation as a developing nation
  • to be a strong nation the US has to be a manufacturing nation
  • US has added 10,000 brand-new factories
  • Europe is set up terrible barriers for US on trade in some ways more worse and then China
  • No country has cheated US more than China
  • China is devaluing its currency, is dying to make a trade deal
  • We are close to signing a phase 1 trade deal and it could happen soon
  • we will only accept a deal if it is good for United States and US workers
  • China is having the worst year in over 57 years
  • Having strong, substantial negotiations with Japan on trade
  • Calls for passage of USMCA.  If put toward a vote Democrats would vote for today

Heads up for a Trump speech due Tuesday (US time)

  
Analysis, Politics

The US President is due to speak at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday 12 November

Ears will be tuned in for any mention of what he is thinking on US-China trade talks.
Ummmm … am I going to get into strife I suggest the most we can expect is vague, general, non-specific comments?
‘Talks are gong great’ … “Talks are not going great’.
That sort of thing?
I don’t expect anything more than that, but maybe they’ll be enough to move markets.
The US President is due to speak at the Economic Club of New York on Tuesday 12 November

US President Trump expected to delay auto tariff decision for 6 more months

  
Analysis, Politics
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US political reporting website Politico with the info

  • Trump is expected to announce this week
  • putting off a decision on whether to impose tariffs on European Union autos for another six months
Poltico cite “a person familiar with the decision”
Link for more
And … bear this in mind:
  • The person with familiar the decision cautioned there is always uncertainty surrounding Trump’s final determination when it comes to trades and tariffs. But barring some unforeseen development, the president is expected to announce another six-month delay, the person said.

US considering scheduling Trump-Xi meeting after NATO summit in London

  
Analysis, Politics

Are the details worked out?

I am not suggesting that Phase I of the US/China trade deal is in jeopardy but the focus from the White House is on the when and the place.  I wonder if the horse is getting in front of the cart?.  This was suggested by CNBC’s Kayla Tausche.
A senior administration official is now on the newswires saying that the US is considering scheduling the Trump/Xi meeting to sign the interim US/China trade deal after the NATO summit in London scheduled for December 3. They add no decision yet has been made.
This idea was suggested by CNBC’s Kayla Tausche, but is now being released by the White House.

China wants 15% tariffs imposed on Sept 1 removed in trade deal

  
Analysis, Politics
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Politico report

China is in a ‘full court press’ to get the 15% tariff imposed by Trump on $112B of goods removed before it signs the Phase One trade deal, according to Politico.
U.S. officials are currently struggling over how to make sure China lives up to its side of the deal. The main enforcement mechanism being considered is that all the tariffs could be re-imposed, one of the people said.
They cited a White House official who said the deal is almost there but there are still hangups on forced technology transfers and IP protections.
China hasn’t decided yet on signing the deal in the US or a neutral location.

Trump takes another shot at the Federal Reserve

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump with the usual stuff

People are VERY disappointed in Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve. The Fed has called it wrong from the beginning, too fast, too slow. They even tightened in the beginning. Others are running circles around them and laughing all the way to the bank. Dollar & Rates are hurting..our manufacturers. We should have lower interest rates than Germany, Japan and all others. We are now, by far, the biggest and strongest Country, but the Fed puts us at a competitive disadvantage. China is not our problem, the Federal Reserve is! We will win anyway.
If you’ve been watching CNBC lately, it sure sounds like Jim Cramer is making a real pitch to be the next Fed chair. There was also talk about turfing Powell after the election in a move that would undoubtedly cause a legal fight.

China reportedly said to doubt long-term trade deal is possible with Trump

  
Analysis, Politics
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China said to be unwilling to budge on big structural changes

The Bloomberg report says that China is casting doubts about reaching a comprehensive long-term trade deal with the US, blaming Trump’s impulsive nature and the risk that he may back out of even the limited deal that both sides are about to sign in the coming weeks.
Adding that Chinese officials have warned that they won’t budge on structural issues either, citing people familiar with the matter. Further noting that China is demanding an end to tariffs in order to begin any talks for “Phase Two”.

Risk trades are taking a bit of a hit with USD/JPY quickly down to a low of 108.35 as equities and bond yields fall as the headlines hit.

This doesn’t mean that a “Phase One” deal is off but it certainly highlights that what both sides are working towards in November is essentially pointless in the grand scheme of things. The trade war is merely put on ice, it doesn’t mean it is over.
And as mentioned before, China has loosely made vague promises on its currency and IP protection during the “Phase One” talks. I don’t think it is any surprise that they are not looking to make firm commitments on those matters and that is what we are seeing.
Let’s see if we will get any official word on this matter in the sessions ahead or if US and Chinese officials will rebuke the report above.

China’s UN envoy says US criticism of China re Xinjiang is not helpful for trade talks

  
Analysis, Politics

China’s envoy to the United Nations with the comment:

  •  Says US criticism of China’s policy in Xinjiang is not ‘helpful for having a good solution to the issue of trade talks’

Xinjiang is in northwest China, home to many ethnic minority groups. Yhe US has been vocal in its criticism of treatment of these groups, including the Uyghur people.

The comment highlights that there are issues beyond trade talks. Reminders of these tend to have a negative impact on ‘risk’, for example AUD/JPY.

US House of Representatives looking likely to move forward on the Trump impeachment – here’s what you need to know.

  
Analysis, Politics

I reckon need to know number 1 is Trump is unlikely to end up being impeached. IMO anyway.

But, before the final decision is made here is a good summary of the process that’ll unfold via AFP. A decent guide, not a legal text, K?
I reckon need to know number 1 is Trump is unlikely to end up being impeached. IMO anyway.
As for market impact … dunno. But I suspect not a lot. Again, IMO.

China says part of deal text with US is ‘basically completed’ but other challenges loom

  
Analysis, Politics

Saturday statement from China

Saturday statement from China
China’s Ministry of Commerce said on Saturday that “the technical consultations of some of the text agreement were basically completed” in a further sign of progress on the Phase 1 deal that could be signed in mid-November.
China is pushing for the rollback of some tariffs and the removal of planned Dec 15 tariffs in order to complete the deal.
The framework of the agreement is limited. China has made some token commitments on currency and has changed IP laws, but not nearly to the extent that the White House had earlier demanded. The crux of the deal is China resuming agricultural purchases at a level seen before 2019 in return for a pause in US tariffs.
At the same time, China is forging ahead on decoupling its technology. Beijing on Tuesday set up a new $29B national semiconductor fund to close the gap with US technology, the WSJ reports.
China’s foreign reliance on foreign semiconductors is stark. It imported $312.1 billion in semiconductors in 2018, more than the $240.3 billion it imported in crude oil.
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