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North Korea has launched more test missiles

Yonhap (South Korean media) with the reports of NK firing off missiles again today

  • ‘super large multiple rocket launcher’
Sheesh …. that doesn’t sound too good.
Yen not doing a real lot on it. In the past missile launches from NK have seen yen gains (a flight to liquidity response) but the market response has transformed into a yawn on these. until that changes again.

Trump: US in final throes of reaching a trade deal with China

Positive comments

Reuters is carrying comments from Trump:
  • Trump says in final throes on reaching trade deal with CHina
  • Trump says US wants to see democracy in Hong Kong
This is a slightly different language. It’s the first time in a few days the President has been so optimistic.
I’m reminded that the previous line was that they were in the ‘short strokes’. The modest market reaction suggests that this kind of talk isn’t enough alone to boost sentiment.

Trump says deal with China ‘potentially very close’

Trump on Fox News

  • Says he told Xi ‘this can’t be an even deal’
  • ‘We have to stand wit Hong Kong but I’m also standing with President Xi’
  • Says he warned Xi not to send soldiers to Hong Kong
  • Deal with China is very close
  • Says he will stick with Pence as running mate in 2020
The comment is boosting stock futures.
Here’s the verbatim:
“We have a deal potentially, very close, he wants to make it much more than I want to make it, I’m not anxious to make it,” he said.

The verbatim of Trump’s latest comments is another sign the deal is falling apart

Trump spoke in a Q&A at Apple headquarters

Trump at Apple
Keep in mind that Trump said earlier in his comments that they were considering exempting Apple from tariffs. To me, that alone says he is already a couple steps along in the process of adding tariffs, or at least strongly considering it.
The main headlines have been reported already but the last part is where the context matters.
Reporter: Will there be a trade deal in place before the end of the year?
Trump: So, I can tell you this: China would much rather make a trade deal than me?
Reporter: Then why haven’t they?
Trump: Because I haven’t wanted to do it yet.
Reporter: Why haven’t you wanted to do it.
Trump: Because I don’t think they’re stepping up to the level that I want
Reporter: I spoke earlier today with Mr Cook and he said another round of tariffs would be bad for business, it would be bad for the United States (interrupted by Trump)
Trump: You know, here’s what I would say. What do you know? I put in tariffs and everyone said ‘Oh geez, you’re taking in hundreds of billions of dollars’ and everyone said ‘oh that’s going to be bad for the economy’. Well, as you just heard from Tim Cook, we have the strongest economy by far in the world and we’re taking in billions and billions. So we’ll see what happens.

(more…)

How Trump has trapped himself in China talks

He needs to be both tough-on-China and friendly to markets, but he can’t be

He needs to be both tough-on-China and friendly to markets, but he can't be
President Trump faces a dilemma.
If he stays tough on China, he risks hurting markets and in his mind, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is a top barometer for his Presidency.
If he softens on China and signs a deal that rolls back tariffs while getting little in return, he risks getting outflanked on an issue that has united Americans and has Democratic candidates talking tough.
The core belief among market participants is that he will cave on China and try to spin his deal as a good one — similar to what he did on NAFTA. That would keep markets happy.
But Trump may be considering another playbook. Top advisor Peter Navarro doesn’t believe that tariffs will hurt the domestic economy and he’s undoubtedly told Trump that the effects are overrated. At the same time, Trump invited Powell to the White House for an impromptu meeting on Monday and it may have been to feel out how the Fed would react to a deal falling apart.
Trump may believe that markets and the economy will hold up fine if he stays tough on China and Powell cuts.
The line from today’s Reuters report that really stands out to me is this:
Trump and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer recognize that rolling back tariffs for a deal that fails to address core intellectual property and technology transfer issues will not be seen as a good deal for the U.S., a person briefed on the matter said.
I don’t think Trump has made up his mind but I do believe he’s weighing both courses of action.

Reports out of Hong Kong – university entrance engulfed in flames, petrol bombs thrown

Happening right now – violence in HK ramping up

This is now getting extremely ugly. Reports of:
  • petrol bombs thrown by protestors
  • police trying to enter university campus ( Polytechnic University)
Situation is fluid, of course.
Is it reasonable to expect mainland China to sit by at the rate the situation is deteriorating in HK?  I don’t think it is.

China’s Global Times on trade talks with the US – says there “isn’t a quick fix for this prolonged conflict”

A piece in the Global times, an interview with Hans-Paul Bürkner, chairman of Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

The headline to this post is an editorial opinion from the GT editor, but it fits with the theme of the interview.
  • The situation between China and the US involves more conflict than the world has seen before, but eventually we’ll resolve it because this is the best way for both. 
  • There will be a trade deal. There will be one deal after another, and one issue after another will be resolved but it can take a lot of time.
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