Archives of “Politics” category

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The only woman from Iran to win an Olympic medal has defected from the country

  
Analysis, Politics
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Kimia Alizadeh issued a statement, accusing the government of Iran of “hypocrisy,” “injustice” and oppressing women while using them as political tools.

The Washington Post has more on the news here.
Alizadeh joins many others in defecting. I wonder how the news will be played in Iran, if at all? Protests have been triggered by the shooting down of the civilian airplane last week killing 176 people, many of them Iranians.
Kimia Alizadeh issued a statement, accusing the government of Iran of "hypocrisy," "injustice" and oppressing women while using them as political tools.

US has reached out to North Korea – Trump tells Kim Jong-un he wants to resume talks

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments from the White House national security adviser Robert O’Brien to US media (Axios)

  • “We’ve reached out to the North Koreans and let them know that we would like to continue the negotiations in Stockholm that were last undertaken in early October.
  • “We’ve been letting them know, through various channels, that we would like to get those [negotiations] back on track and to implement Chairman Kim’s commitment” to denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula.
Because the grovelling to NK has worked well so far.
Comments from the White House national security adviser Robert O'Brien to US media (Axios)

Weekend Taiwan election – A big win for Beijing-skeptic party

  
Analysis, Politics

Leader of the Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has locked in a second term.

Beating out the more China-friendly Kuomintang party (leader is Han Kuo-yu)
  • Tsai has 57%, securing the highest number of votes for any candidate since Taiwan’s first direct presidential election in 1996. DPP has maintained its majority in the parliament
  • Han on 39%
Tsai:
  • Today, I want to once again, call upon the Beijing authorities to remind them that peace, parity, democracy and dialogue are the key to positive interactions and long term sustainable development
  • China must abandon its threats of the use of force against Taiwan.
HK will be eyeing the result.

US to Iraq: Kick out our military and we will seize your central bank accounts

  
Analysis, Politics
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US puts the petrodollar at risk

US puts the petrodollar at risk
The US warned Iraq that if it kicks American forces out of the country, it would lock the country out of its central bank accounts held at the New York Fed.
Iraq uses the account to settle oil sales of oil and other international transfers.
Iraq’s elected legislature voted last week to expel US troops who were invited to the country to fight ISIS in 2014. The Prime Minister moved forward with those plans this week in a call with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.
The threat may spark a shift away from US dollar use and pricing in the international oil trade. It could also cause other countries to reconsider keeping money or other financial assets in the United States.
An adviser to the prime minister, Abd al-Hassanein al-Hanein, said that while the threat of sanctions was a concern, he did not expect the U.S. to go through with it. “If the U.S. does that, it will lose Iraq forever,” he said.
In its most-recent disclosures from end-2018, Iraq’s central bank said it held $3 billion in overnight deposits at the NY Fed.

Mike Pence: US continues to receive word that Iran is standing down

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments by US vice president, Mike Pence

US Iran
  • The US is ‘ready for anything’ on Iran
  • No doubt that Iranians wanted to kill Americans with missile strikes
  • It would be a different place today if the missiles hit its intended targets

A bit of focus is still on tensions in the Middle East but I would expect markets to move on from this eventually. US-Iran tensions will no doubt stay the course but it shouldn’t grip markets as much as it did over the past few days unless we see a major escalation again.

Trump has pretty much moved on as well as he already switches back to focus on the impeachment case, tweeting out: PRESIDENTIAL HARASSMENT!

Iranian commander: Missile strikes’ aim was not to kill US troops, but to damage military machines

  
Analysis, Politics

A senior Iranian Guards commander is speaking on state television

  • Missile attacks on US targets started operation that will continue across the region
  • The appropriate revenge to Soleimani’s killing is to expel US troops from the region
It is much easier to talk in hindsight I guess but I reckon this is part and parcel of the recent theatrics. US-Iran geopolitical tensions will still carry on for quite some time yet but for now, any major escalation is not likely to be in this chapter of the story.
That said, the headline is spooking markets a little as gold nudges up a tad bit alongside oil with USD/JPY easing by about 10 pips to 109.35.

China says vice premier Liu He will go to Washington to sign Phase One trade deal

  
Analysis, Politics

The Chinese commerce ministry confirms the matter

  • Liu He will go to Washington for trade deal signing on 13-15 January
  • Both sides remain in close communication on particular arrangements on signing
This was very much expected after recent reports have suggested the dates but the headline above should keep risk trades on the right track and not derail the recent momentum.
There doesn’t seem to be any major hiccups along the way but we’ll still have to see how markets will react after the details of the deal are disclosed following the signing.

Iran’s Khamenei: The people of Iran gave the US a ‘crushing response’

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments by Iranian supreme leader, Ali Khamenei

  • The US is Iran’s enemy
  • US troops should leave the region
  • US presence in the region must come to an end
He also adds that the overnight missile strikes are ‘a slap in the face’ of the US and says that Iran refuses to resume nuclear talks with Washington.
If anything else, this just points to the fact that tensions between the two will still persist for quite some time yet. As such, it will be a key geopolitical consideration this year.
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