Archives of “Politics” category

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ICYMI – Yonhap on North Korea’s up to 60 nuclear weapons & world’s third-largest stockpile of chemical weapons

  
Analysis, Politics
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Yonhap (South Korean media) cited a U.S. Department of the Army report, “North Korean tactics” published in July.

  • “Estimates for North Korean nuclear weapons range from 20-60 bombs, with the capability to produce 6 new devices each year” 
  • “North Korea sought nuclear weapons because its leaders thought the threat of a nuclear attack would prevent other countries from contemplating a regime change” 
ps. I am expecting something from NK today:
  • North Korea says it will convene a high level meeting on Wednesday – matter of ‘crucial significance’
Kim’s ‘Mission accomplished’ grin:
Yonhap (South Korean media) cited a U.S. Department of the Army report, "North Korean tactics" published in July. 

Trump says his attitude towards China is not friendly

  
Analysis, Politics

Trump campaign comments from the White House

  • says China is giving US farmers large orders
  • any deal on TikTok will have to be substantially beneficial to the US, the US needs total security
more to come
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Has also been commenting on masks – the usual, ie he is anti mask etc. Which is a shame, the continued spread of the virus would be combatted to a good extent by mask wearing, not doing so is prolonging the health and economic costs borne by people in the US.
Trump at the White House
trump

UK press (Times) report: US sends stealth bombers to counter Chinese threat

  
Analysis, Politics
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UK newspaper The Times with the info on US military assets deployed

  • Three American B-2 stealth bombers have arrived in the Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia on the eve of Chinese live-firing naval exercises north of Taiwan.
  • It is the first time the nuclear-capable strategic bombers have been sent to the remote island since 2016, in an indication of the growing concern about China’s intentions towards Taiwan.
  • The bombers flew across the Pacific from Whiteman air force base in Missouri to land at Diego Garcia, part of the British Indian Ocean Territory. With their advanced stealth technology, the B-2s can penetrate enemy territory without alerting air-defence radars.
Link is here, Times (may be gated)
Seems rather a long way away:
UK newspaper The Times with the info on US military assets deployed
Taiwan escalation would be likely risk negative. This seems a bit of a small step. Let’s hope it goes no further (probably a forlorn hope).

Weekend news – US imposes sanctions on Hong Kong chief executive Carrie Lam

  
Analysis, Politics

The sanctions have been placed by the US Treasury. On HK head Lam and  10 other top officials in Hong Kong and mainland China.

  • Sanction target those undermining Hong Kong’s autonomy, said Treasury Secretary Mnuchin
  • Treasury accused Lam of “implementing Beijing’s policies of suppression of freedom and democratic processes”
On Friday Trump took action against TikTok and WeChat, US treasury adding to the actions on China over the weekend.
hong kong china trump

UN on reports that North Korea have developed nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles

  
Analysis, Politics
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Reuters siting a confidential UN sanctions monitor report they have sighted

  • North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons program
  • Report says several countries assess North Korea has ‘probably developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into the warheads of its ballistic missiles’

News on escalations re NK are yen positive although the market has become a little complacent on such reports. Yen is not moving much on this report.

China says can expel hundreds of US “diplomats” who actually worked for CIA in Chinese mainland

  
Analysis, Politics

Via the Global Times: China can consider targeted strike to retaliate the US on the forced closure of the consulate in Houston

  • expelling hundreds or even more US “diplomats” who actually worked for CIA in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong
GT citing a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing
Via the Global Times: China can consider targeted strike to retaliate the US on the forced closure of the consulate in Houston

US Sec State Pompeo says China threat to economy, liberty

  
Analysis, Politics

Title is “Communist China and the Free World’s Future”

Pompeo is unleashing on China
  • China military growing stronger, more menacing
  • China filed to halt spread of coronavirus
  • Free world must triumph over this new tyranny

  • Must distrust China

    • Xi is a true believer in bankrupt totalitarian ideology
    • China using “slave labour”
    • Huawei a true national security threat
    • Chinese consulate in Houston was a hub of spying and IP theft
    • Chinese people distinct from the Chinese Communist Party – must engage with the people
    • Communists always lie
    • CCP fears the Chinese peoples’ opinions
    • its time for free nations to act to protect their own economic prosperity, its ideals from the tentacles of the CCP
    • “The old paradigm of blind engagement with China has failed. We must not continue it. We must not return to it.”
china speech pompeo

China says US is breaking down the friendship bridge between the two countries

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

US China
  • US allegations are malicious slandering
  • Repeats vow to make necessary response to US actions
  • Says unaware of state television reportedly pulling EPL broadcasts off the air

As much as the headline sounds “bad”, actions speak louder than words. The comments don’t really signify much of an escalation to be honest. If shutting down consulates is the new tariffs, markets aren’t likely to react much more than they already have.

Trump has a 91% chance of winning the November 2020 election says Primary Model

  
Analysis, Politics

The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

  • has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996
  • Norpoth says his model would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912
His model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests
The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth
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