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FBI: Russia, Iran have attempted to interfere with US election

  
Analysis, Politics
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US directory of national intelligence Ratcliffe announces the discovery

  • US has identified Russia, Iran as countries who have attempted to interfere with the US election
  • Has sent spoof emails designed to intimidate voters, incite unrest, damage Pres. Trump
  • Aware that Russia has obtained some voter information
  • intelligence community court threat, reacted swiftly
  • This is not a partisan issue
  • Prepared for actions by those hostile to democracy

The interference apparently came through emails threatening those who voted against Trump.

Radcliffe says that the email, apparently from The Proud Boys, is intended to hurt Pres. Trump. Of course, if a recipient was intimidated by the email, it might benefit Pres. Trump.
Regardless of the intentions, stopping interference in elections is certainly a prerogative. FBI’s Wray is on the wires saying:
  • The FBI will not tolerate 4 interference elections
  • Election infrastructure remains resilient

Congress likely out of time on per-election stimulus deal – report

  
Analysis, Politics

It’s all political theatre now

It's all political theatre now
A stimulus bill is unlikely to be passed before the election, according to sources in both parties cited by CNN.
There is hope for an agreement in principle but passing it before the Nov 3 vote is probably too big of a hurdle.

That’s because of the sharp disagreements within the GOP, the logistical hurdles of passing legislation quickly of this magnitude through both chambers and the fact that Speaker Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin still have many outstanding details to sort through.

Pelosi has not yet told her colleagues if she’ll bring the House back to session next week to vote on the stimulus, sources said. So it’s still possible the House could return next week just days before the election.

But the Senate is likely to adjourn after Monday when Amy Coney Barrett is confirmed to the Supreme Court, though the final schedule has not yet been announced.

US election – Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll shows rebound for Trump to only 11 points behind Biden

  
Analysis, Politics

This from the Wall Street Journal overnight, polling registered voters shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 42%

  • An 11 point lead which is an improvement for Trump as the previous poll had him trailing by 14.
In the detail of the piece is this:
  • The No. 1 election issue among those surveyed was the economy, and voters gave Republicans a 13-point advantage over Democrats as the better economic manager. Yet, the pollsters said voters this election cycle don’t seem to be voting based on that issue alone.
  • a recent example of Republicans losing an election while leading with voters on handling the economy was the 2018 midterms, in which Democrats gained enough seats to retake control of the House.
Here is the link for further (may be gated)
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And, repeating this from earlier:
 I am aware that posts like this make some folks upset. They accuse me of all sorts of things, such as bias. Which is projection, but its OK as these folks are upset and hurting. If you would like to point me to any reputable polls showing Trump is ahead I’d be keen to post on those, it would add some interest to the race for the White House.
This from the Wall Street Journal overnight, polling registered voters shows Biden leading Trump 53% to 42%

US election poll gives Biden a double-digit point lead over Trump

  
Analysis, Politics

This an NPR/PBS poll published Thursday in the US.

  • Biden 54%
  • Trump 43%
  • “among likely voters in the poll”.
Says the piece:
  • It’s the highest level of support Biden has achieved since the poll began testing the head-to-head matchup in February
  • Biden continues to have an advantage with Black voters, Latinos, whites with a college degree, women, people who live in cities and suburbs, young voters and independents
  • Biden is leading in this survey with white voters 51% to 47%. That is extraordinary. Trump won white voters in 2016 by 20 points, and no Democrat has won that high a share of white voters since Jimmy Carter in 1976, when the U.S. was far less racially diverse.
  • Biden has pulled ahead in several key states, including Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which were crucial to Trump’s victory in 2016. But Trump is within striking distance.
Here is the link to the piece for more.
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ps. I am aware that posts like this make some folks upset. They accuse me of all sorts of things, such as bias. Which is projection, but its OK as these folks are upset and hurting.
If you would like to point me to any reputable polls showing Trump is ahead I’d be keen to post on those, it would add some interest to the race for the White House.

This an NPR/PBS poll published Thursday in the US.

US President challenger Biden campaign has nearly half a billion $ in campaign cash

  
Analysis, Politics

The Biden campaign have announced they raised more than $380m in September, and they now have more than $430m in campaign cash on hand.

$430m is chunky amount with less than 3 weeks to go. Polls continue to indicate a Biden victory, the cash buffer gives scope for a saturation spend should the polls narrow.
Biden may be on track for a “Morning in America” Reagan-style victory a-la 1980.

The Biden campaign have announced they raised more than $380m in September, and they now have more than $430m in campaign cash on hand.

Even Trump-friendly polls are showing him with a huge deficit

  
Analysis, Politics

Rasmussen Reports has been a Trump-friendly firm since he first arrived as a candidate. It was one of the few pollsters that predicted he would win the Presidency and their numbers are often touted by the President himself.
Today though, they published a poll with Trump losing 52%-40% to Biden with just 4% undecided.
“President Trump’s debate performance followed by his coronavirus diagnosis appear to be digging an even deeper hole for him this week,” Rasmussen said.
RealClearPolitics has Biden up 9.7 points.
Trump Biden
Rasmussen daily Trump approval rating is also at its lowest since June at -15. It had perked up to +4 on Sept 18 but that was the day Ruth Bader Ginsberg died and it’s been downhill steadily since.
Other state polls today:
  • Texas – even
  • Iowa – Biden +1
  • Nevada – Biden +6
  • Ohio – Biden +1
  • Pennsylvania – Biden +13
  • Iowa – Biden +5
  • Florida – Biden +11
Likely a big reason that US equities stormed back today were bets on a blue wave followed by a huge stimulus package.
In the 2016 election, Clinton never hit 50% and there were far more undecideds. It’s going to be very tough for Trump to turn this around.

Russia’s Putin: We will work with any US president

  
Analysis, Politics

Putin says that Russia is just an observer in the US election

He’s putting a more neutral facade at the moment by saying that with Trump, there were a lot of success in Russia-US relations but Trump also imposed the most amount of sanctions ever against Russia by any US president.
As for Biden, he said that he welcomes Biden’s statements of arms control noting that it is an important signal for future cooperation. But at the same time said Biden’s anti-Russian rhetoric is something to that they will take note of.
One final one for the road?

 

Trump Putin

NY Times reports the next Trump-Biden debate may be held virtually

  
Analysis, Politics

The next head-to-head between the two is scheduled for October 15.

This comes in the wake of Trump testing positive and being admitted to hospital. He is said to be leaving hospital Monday evening US time and heading back home to the White House.
  • October 15 would fall within the time frame when Trump should be isolating.
  • The White House has decided not to trace the contacts of guests and staff members at the September 26 Rose Garden celebration for Judge Amy Coney Barrett
  • At least eight people, including the president, may have become infected at this event.
  • Thus it would appear the White House is a hotspot workplace at present.
It would be a novelty holding the debate virtually.
2020 and its surprises continue ….

Trump aide Hope Hicks test positive to COVID-19

  
Analysis, Politics

Hicks is a close confidante of Trump

  • former White House communications director
  • now an aide to senior advisor Jared Kushner
Media reports add:
  • Hicks travelled with Trump aboard Air Force One to and from the presidential debate on Tuesday, and to his Minnesota rally yesterday
Let’s hope she recovers soon.
As for President Trump, his age and obesity put him in a high-risk group. Let’s hope also he does not contract the infection despite the close contact.
hicks trump coronavirus COVID-19

“Who will win the election?” is the wrong question

  
Analysis, Politics
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“Will there be a clear, uncontested and accepted winner?” is a better question

"Will there be a clear, uncontested and accepted winner?" is a better question
The betting odds of a Biden Presidency ticked higher after yesterday’s debate. I believe Trump’s constant interrupting was at least partly strategic in the hope of tripping up Biden and making him look more like the bumbling caricature he’s tried to construct. By and large that didn’t work and I doubt Trump won over many undecideds.
Given the polling lead, Biden should be a large favourite but he’s stuck at 60/40 because no one can forget Trump’s upset win over Hillary Clinton, or Brexit.
For markets, I think the outcome itself is less important in the short term than the question of whether or not their will be a clear winner; and whether Trump will ever concede.
BMO’s fixed income team writes today about the tail risk of a contested election but ponders the degree to which the consensus opinion is already fully incorporated into current valuations.
Let’s face it, very few in the market are anticipating a smooth election nor for any potential transition of power to be uneventful. The extent to which November serves to disrupt functioning of the federal government or fuel further civil unrest remains to be seen and, frankly, is the most significant tail risk as we ponder potential outcomes.
I’m open to the ‘sell the rumour, buy the fact trade’ but skeptical that it’s even possible to price in uncertainty in that way. Uncertainty is — by definition — something that persists for an indefinite amount of time. If Trump refuses to concede even on a clear loss, he will still have a strong political base and I expect him to use it to dog Biden for years. It’s a question of how far he’s willing to go and with Trump, the sky is the limit.
The ‘buy the fact’ trade relies on an eventual return to Obama-era levels of civility (which isn’t saying much) but I just don’t think that’s coming.
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