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European shares start the week with gains

Major indices closed the day with modest gains

The major European indices are starting the week with modest gains. The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.49%
  • France’s CAC, +0.3%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +0.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, unchanged
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.4%
in the European debt market, yields have climbed higher.   The France moved closer to the 0.0% level, trading at -0.027%.  The yield has not been above 0.0% since July 16.
The European yields are higher

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.30% at 22,867.27

The Nikkei is closing in on the 23,000 mark

The Nikkei is closing in on the 23,000 mark

Japanese stocks pick up where they left off last week as they push higher today. The Nikkei continues to trade at over one-year highs and is now just shy of the 23,000 level.

The more buoyant mood in Wall St at the end of last week is helping with that as sentiment around the region is also buoyed. The Hang Seng is up by 1.0% while the Shanghai Composite is up by 0.7% at the moment.
That said, the overall risk mood in markets is more composed with US and European futures only pointing to mild gains for the time being. USD/JPY rests at 108.72 as a result, trading within a 12 pips range to kick start the week.

European equity close: Solid day of broad gains

Closing changes for the main European bourses:

Closing changes for the main European bourses:
  • UK FTSE 100 +0.9%
  • German DAX +0.6%
  • Italy MIB +0.8%
  • French CAC +0.4%
  • Spain IBEX +0.1%
highlighted the break higher in UK stocks yesterday and that continued with a very good day today.
The latest reports confirm that Johnson will table a motion for a general election on Monday. That’s been rumored for hours and but it’s putting further pressure on GBP.

European equity close: Solid gains in the UK and Germany

Closing changes in the main European bourses:

Closing changes in the main European bourses:
  • UK FTSE 100 +0.65%
  • French CAC flat
  • German DAX +0.4%
  • Italy MIB -0.6%
  • Spain IBEX flat
Those are some significant divergences but what’s notable to me is the strong close in the FTSE 100 and rise above the October 14 high. The combination of FX and equity gains could make UK stocks the place to be in the months ahead.

US Stocks jump, government bonds sell-off on Brexit draft deal hopes

US and European stocks jumped, government bonds sold off and the pound leapt as investors remained hopeful British and EU negotiators were close to a draft deal on Brexit. The S&P 500 finished 1 per cent higher in New York on Tuesday in a broad-based rally that was the benchmark’s fourth advance in five sessions and left it about 1 per cent from its record high close in late July. Healthcare was the best-performing sector in the index as investors cheered earnings from Johnson & Johnson, while the telecommunications services and technology sectors were next best. Several key banks including JPMorgan, Citigroup, Wells Fargo and Goldman Sachs reported earnings ahead of the open in New York. In early trade, JPMorgan was the standout gainer, but the broad market rally today ultimately lifted the share prices of rivals.

The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.2 per cent. US Treasuries tumbled, driving yields higher. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury was up 1.8 basis points to 1.771 per cent, having been down 4 bps earlier in the session. European stocks extended gains to leave the broad Stoxx 600 up 1.1 per cent and Germany’s Dax up 1.2 per cent. London’s FTSE 100 closed fractionally lower. Sterling was up 1.2 per cent in afternoon trade in New York to $1.2766 and gained 1.3 per cent against the euro to €1.1572, its highest since May, spurred along by a Bloomberg report that UK and EU negotiators were now close to a draft Brexit deal.

Reflecting the sell-off in the government bond markets, the yield on the UK 10-year Gilt was up 0.6 bps to 0.699 per cent, while that on the Germany’s 10-year Bund rose 1.9bp to minus 0.405 per cent. Earlier in the day, Michel Barnier, Brussels’ chief Brexit negotiator, has said a new withdrawal deal between the EU27 and the UK is “still possible” this week, but warned that it has become “more and more difficult” as the clock ticks towards a crucial bloc summit starting on Thursday. Figures released earlier Tuesday showed investor sentiment about the German economy declined less than expected in October, while remaining subdued over worries about the US-China trade war and the potential for a disruptive Brexit. Asian equity markets were mixed, with Japan’s Topix outperforming as traders returned from a holiday.

China’s CSI 300 gauge of Shanghai- and Shenzhen-listed names fell 0.4 per cent after data showed consumer price inflation increased at its fastest pace in six years in September. US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin warned overnight that a new round of tariffs set for December 15 on $156bn of Chinese goods would be triggered if Beijing failed to seal the limited deal tentatively struck with Donald Trump last week, underlining the fragility of that truce. “Not enough was achieved to alter meaningfully the fundamental global economic outlook, in our view,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management. “We maintain an underweight to equities. We will be looking for signs of progress on unresolved trade issues and a response in the economic data that might lead us to reassess our positioning.”

Eurostoxx futures +0.4% in early European trading

Relatively mild gains observed in early trades

  • German DAX futures +0.3%
  • French CAC 40 futures +0.3%
  • UK FTSE futures +0.2%
This is largely reflective of the mood seen in US futures, which are slightly higher as well to start the European morning.
That said, the overall risk mood remains more measured with Treasury yields on the weaker side playing catch up to price action yesterday.
So far, there’s still the feeling that traders and investors are still quite indecisive about risk trades following the US-China trade truce. As such, the next set of headlines is likely the spot to watch to push risk towards a certain direction.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 1.87% at 22,207.21

Japanese stocks play catch up after the long weekend

Nikkei 15-10

The gains are in part to do with the US-China trade truce but also some talk of reconstruction demand after the hit from Typhoon Hagibis.

The overall risk mood in the region remains more mixed with the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite both sitting lower.

Markets are still very much lacking direction at the moment as traders and investors are awaiting the next push in risk sentiment. The trade truce looks to be old news at this point so let’s see if we’ll get any other headlines to move things along.
US futures are up by 0.3% currently and that should lend to mild gains in European futures as well but there isn’t anything in that to really shift the dial for now.

European shares end the day with mixed results

Some of the major indices are higher and a few are lower

The major European indices are ending the day mixed
  • German DAX, +0.3%
  • France’s CAC, +0.4%
  • UK’s FTSE, +0.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.3%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.5%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are moving back to the downside after positive moves at the end of last week (especially in the UK yields).  The UK 10 year yield is leading the way to the downside after hope for a Brexit deal with the EU started to fizzle over the weekend.  The UK 10 year yield is down -7.0 basis points.
Some of the major indices are higher and a few are lower
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