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US 10-year yields aren’t so sure about a break higher after all

A look at US 10-year yields

A look at US 10-year yields
I have been watching the downward triangle in US year yields for awhile. The break in the trend coincided in the latest leg-up in USD/JPY.
What’s happening now is that the break is fading. Meanwhile, USD/JPY has flattened out.
It’s a minor dichotomy at the moment but I think it’s amplified because of recent economic data. The ADP revision and the strong ISM non-manufacturing report (along with the best new orders since 2005) haven’t moved the needle, which is troubling for the bulls in USD/JPY and those hoping for Treasury yields to move higher.
Technically, a downward triangle isn’t exactly the strongest technical signal to begin with. It’s starting to look like the trend is more of a sideways move in the 2.60%-2.80% range and that will be the track to watch.

An Update :US Dollar ,EURO ,YEN ,AUD ,INR ,GBP ,CAD ,BRENT ,WTI ,SPX ,Shanghai composite -Anirudh Sethi

The US dollar was mixed against the major currencies last week.  The dollar-bloc currencies and the Japanese yen fell,  while the other major currencies rose, led by sterling (1.1%) on ideas that the risk of a no-deal Brexit was diminished, and the Swedish krona (0.9%) that was bolstered by 1.2% growth in Q4, quarter-over-quarter (around twice what economists expected).
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Thai baht soars to post-coup high, threatening local business

The Thai baht has soared to its highest level against the dollar since the current junta government seized power in a coup in 2014, jeopardizing the nation’s exports and tourism-dependent economic growth just a month before the country’s long-awaited election in March.

The baht traded at 31.19 to the U.S. dollar on Friday, up 4% since the start of the year, as one point reaching its highest level since November 2013.

The appreciation of the Thai currency was steeper compared to regional peers. The Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso have risen by 2% and 1%, respectively, since the start of the year. The baht was the strongest performer of all regional currencies in 2018.

While the risk appetite of investors around the world turned positive since U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled a halt in rate rises in January, the Bank of Thailand has maintained its hawkish stance. The country’s central bank held rates at its policy meeting in early February, although two out of six committee members present voted for a rise, even though the bank had already raised rates for the first time in seven years in December.

The difference in policy direction of the U.S. and Thai central banks drew money to the latter market, causing the baht’s rise. A constant current account surplus since late 2014 has also contributed to the currency’s rise.

Yoichiro Yamaguchi, chief economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp., said that while currencies of countries with a current-account deficit tend to be vulnerable to market shocks, “Thai baht-based assets are considered safer in the Southeast Asia region.”

(more…)

Euro Last Support or Hope :136

EURO -WEEKLY CHART

Last week ,The epicenter of many of  questions seems to be southern Europe, where Greece, Portugal, Spain and to a lesser extent the remainder of the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain) have flamed investor concerns that burgeoning public debt may significantly weaken investor demand for sovereign debt and exacerbate an already trouble budgetary crisis.

Many investors have taken to selling the euro is as a means by which to reduce exposure to these problem areas and/or speculate on one or more of these crises spiraling out of control.

-Just look at above chart :Weekly chart includes a powerful rally of Year 2009 and more recently and two-stage selloff, starting in the first half of December and picking up steam over the course of the past 3 ½ weeks as traders looked to capitalize on weakness stemming from the problems in Greece, Portugal and Spain.

ALERT25

Just watch 136 level.Three consecutive close below this level+ Weekly close will take to 131.70-130 level.

-If not breaks 136 & trades above 138 level will create buying upto 140-141 level.

-Best Strategy :Sell on Rise.

-Will update more very soon.

Updated at 13:10/8th Feb/Baroda

Strong Rupee-Any impact ?

https://www.anirudhsethireport.com/inr-looking-strong-against-usd-jpy-gbp/

https://www.anirudhsethireport.com/what-i-forecasted-for-usd-inr-dont-miss-to-read/

 

Dear Traders /Readers ,Just click above links and u will see from what level Iam Bullish in Indian Rupee.

While looking at chart of INR against GBP ,EURO ,USD and JPY -Just thought came in my mind and thinking what will be the impact on Indian Software Companies or any negative impact on results for this quarter ?

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 9% since Dec’09 against British Pound

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 9% against Euro

-Indian Rupee had appreciated by 3% against USD since Dec’09

-US Dollar is strong against all world currencies except India

-I Don’t understand when  USD ,GBP ,EURO  were strong against INR…Then results of Indian Software companies were mind blowing and stocks were zooming up up up.

-Now since INR is so strong against all 3 currencies then also no impact on stock price and nobody talking and writing ??

-Apart from Software Companies ,What will be the impact on the companies those exporting in Europe ,UK ,USA ?

Just think it over and if possible comment

Updated at 12:49/28th March/Baroda

Forint Slide Accelerates As Hungarian Default Risk Now 14 Wider To 277bps

Poor, poor Europe. Every room one shines a light in, the cockroaches don’t even bother to scurry to safety any more. Yet what is glaringly obvious takes a media-reported soundbite to awake people. So is the case with Hungary today. After opening 7 tighter, Hungarian CDS are now 14 bps wider to 277bps. As the attached chart shows, the Hungarian Forint is now in freefall. Yet if investors are concerned about Hungary, they should take a look at some of its less lucky Eastern European neighbors which, just like Hungary, have been considered to be strong for so long.

UK And US Among Top 5 Weekly Sovereign Deriskers

The week’s biggest (sovereign) CDS movers have been released, and we have some new entrants in the most endangered species list. While by now nobody will be surprised that the UK is a consistent top 2 player (coming in this week with $319 million in net notional derisking, this making it the 8th week or so the country has made the top 3), only behind Italy and its $452 million in net notional, and just in front of last week’s #1 Brazil, the presence of the United States at #4 should be a little unsettling. It has been months since the US appeared in the top 5. And just like in the long gold case, the same types of existential questions once again arise when the interest in US CDS picks up: who gets to pay off your contracts in the case of an event of default? Elsewhere, the presence of Korea and Turkey (or Australia) in the top 10 should not come as too surprising. On the other end, short covering was violent in CDS of Spain, Hungary and Portugal – Europe’s newest lepers. Is the CDS community concerned the EU can actually pull out a rabbit out of the hat that actually works for once? Hardly. The top 10 reriskers also saw the inclusion of France and long-forgotten insolvent Greece.

Dutch Bank Algo Blamed For GBP Flash Crash

Another rogue algo takes matters into its own binary hands. Time to institute circuit breakers for the tiny FX market, which alone celebrated Obama’s latest set of oratory delight by flash crashing all on its lonesome…

From Goldman’s Mitesh Parikh:

 
 

GBP – what just happened


To save being asked anymore times – the short answer is I honestly don’t know.. 1.5290 – 1.5168 between 7.56am and 7.57am.. unlikely it was for a fix (that would make sense if closer to 8am), and price action doesn’t suggest a mis-hit since it was ‘walked’ down over the course of the minute albeit exceptionally aggressively (not everyone executes as subtly as we do… no comments please!) We saw Dutch interbank names selling aggressively towards 1.5200 with some suggestion that their algo blew up from a few market sources, although we can’t comment on the validity of this.  Needless to say the market has corrected, cable is back above 1.5300, cross now sub 0.8430 , exactly where we started.


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