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Trump says euro ‘dropping like crazy’ as he laments dollar

  
Analysis, Forex
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Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed

The latest tweet:
The Euro is dropping against the Dollar “like crazy,” giving them a big export and manufacturing advantage…and the Fed does NOTHING! Our Dollar is now the strongest in history. Sounds good, doesn’t it? Except to those (manufacturers) that make product for sale outside the U.S. We don’t have a Tariff problem (we are reigning in bad and/or unfair players), we have a Fed problem. They don’t have a clue!
Here’s what ‘like crazy’ looks like:
Trump with his usual rant against the dollar and the Fed
The euro is down 0.75% against the US dollar in the past three months. The euro is higher today than it was on the day Trump was elected… ‘like crazy’ indeed.
EURUSD in Trump's term
Trump is continuing and says:
If the Fed would cut, we would have one of the biggest Stock Market increases in a long time. Badly run and weak companies are smartly blaming these small Tariffs instead of themselves for bad management…and who can really blame them for doing that? Excuses!
There are rumors that he was going to delay the tariffs that kick in on Sunday but this doesn’t sound like a guy who is about to backtrack.

August forex seasonal scorecard

  
Analysis, Forex
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You can’t predict anything from Donald Trump but the August seasonal patterns did a great job of predicting how the month would go.
1. Weakest month of the year for NZD/USD
This one delivered in a big way. Month-to-date the kiwi is down 3.7%. It’s fallen every which way and is the worst performing major currency this month.
2. 2nd weakest month for CAD
The loonie has been bolstered by some upbeat economic data including today’s GDP report but even with all that, the Canadian dollar fell 0.7% on the month against the US dollar.
3. 2nd weakest month of the year for AUD
It was the second-weakest month and AUD was the 2nd weakest performing major. AUD/USD fell 1.6% in the month.
4. 2nd weakest month for cable
This one bucked the trend but only modestly. Cable is up 0.4% on the month with more than half the gain coming today. Maybe it’s a good sign that the pound has been able to buck seasonal weakness?
5. 2nd strongest month for gold
Few traders need a recap on this one. Gold was a rocket ship in August posting one of its best months in years as it gained nearly 7%.
6. Poorest month over the past decade for the S&P 500
Stock markets have shown some impressive resilience over the tail end of this week but all that has done is narrowed a loss that was as much as 6.2% at one point down to -2.7%.
Verdict:
That’s a solid 5 out of 6 wins with a few homeruns in there. Ready for the September seasonal playbook?

Cable falls below 1.2200 as pound pares some of its overnight gains

  
Analysis, Forex

GBP/USD falls to a session low of 1.2195

GBP/USD H1 23-08
The pound is losing some further ground in the European morning with cable now threatening to slip back under the 1.2200 handle. Price has fallen to a session low of 1.2195.
As mentioned earlier, topside resistance remains at the 50.0 retracement level @ 1.2267 and that remains the risk for sellers. Meanwhile, the risk for buyers is if price holds a break back below the 1.2200 handle.
If we do see such a move, it will open up a test towards the 100-hour MA @ 1.2155 as well as potentially the 200-hour MA @ 1.2124.
There isn’t much driving the move lower here but as highlighted in the earlier post as well, Merkel’s comments isn’t exactly a major game-changer to the Brexit equation – not when it isn’t back by concrete solutions to the Irish border still.
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