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Singapore economic growth in Q4 2019 +0.1% q/q (vs +0.4% expected)

  
Analysis, Economy

Q/q GDP +0.1% against the expected +0.4% and prior quarter’s 2.4%

For the y/y, comes in at 0.7%
  • expected 0.6%
  • prior 3.1%
SG is an export reliant economy, so its nor surprise its been impacted by the trade war. The MAS eased policy in October 2019 (first easing since 2016) citing the external risks facing the country.
The phase 1 US-China deal, expected to be singed in the next couple of weeks, might ease the tensions a little.

China: We are in close communication with US on trade deal signing ceremony

  
Analysis, Economy

Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

Trump Xi

“Both sides’ economic and trade teams are in close communication about detailed arrangements for the deal’s signing and other follow-up work.”

No further elaboration there by the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang.
Just take note that until today, China has yet to confirm the specifics of the Phase One trade deal that have been touted by US officials over the past two weeks. Notably, China said that they will only disclose the details after the official signing of the deal.

The remark above comes after US president Trump said yesterday that he and China president Xi Jinping will have a signing ceremony to the Phase One trade deal.

In case you missed it, Trump told reporters yesterday that, “We’ll be having a signing ceremony, yes. And we’ll be having a quicker signing because we want to get it done. The deal is done, it’s just being translated now.”

Moody’s says global manufacturing outlook for 2020 is negative

  
Analysis, Economy
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Moody’s on the manufacturing outlook

  • Most manufacturign sectors will likely experience only modest profit growth or even slight declines in 2020
  • Agricultural, transportation and utilities end markets exhibit weak growth prospects
  • Aerospace and defense segment has strong growth prospects
  • Key drivers for global manufacturing include weak earnings growth expectations and deteriorating sentiment

If Moody’s track record is any indication, then now is the time to buy the stocks of manufacturers relating to agricultural, transportation and utilities industries.

Eurozone December flash manufacturing PMI 45.9 vs 47.3 expected

  
Analysis, Economy

Latest data released by Markit – 16 December 2019

  • Prior 46.9
  • Services PMI 52.4 vs 52.0 expected
  • Prior 51.9
  • Composite PMI 50.6 vs 50.7 expected
  • Prior 50.6
No surprises there as the drop in the manufacturing print has been foreshadowed by the more sluggish French and German prints earlier. Overall, this points to more stagnation seen in the euro area economy in Q4 as the composite reading keeps steady just above 50.

BOJ quarterly Tankan report out now – manufacturing mood worsens

  
Analysis, Economy
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Bank of Japan survey is of manufacturing and service companies designed to assess business conditions in Japan

The main Q4 results:
Large Manufacturing Index: 0
  • est 4, prev 5
Large Non-Manufacturing Index 20, improving!
  • est 16, prev 21
Large Manufacturing Outlook 0
  • est 3, prev 2
Large Non-Manufacturing Outlook 18
  • est 16, prev 15
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