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BOJ Tankan, business sentiment plummets

  
Analysis, Economy

The Tankan is a survey conducted by the Bank of Japan

Woeful results, hitting multi year lows from manufacturers and non-manufacturers alike
  • Large manufacturers index hits its lowest since March of 2013 at -8
  • Large non-manufacturers index falls to its lowest reading since March 2013 at +8
  • Small non-manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for 2 straight quarters, hit worst level since December 2014, index at -1
  • Small manufacturers’ sentiment worsened for 5th straight quarter, hit worst level since March 2013, index at -15

As part of the survey firms are asked on their outlook for coming months, also a bleak picture, as you’d expect given the virus outbreak impact:

  • big manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -11
  • big non-manufacturers index three months ahead seen at -1

More:

  • big firms see capex +1.8% this fiscal year
  • small firms see capex -11.7%

China PMI data for March due Tuesday 31 March 2020 – preview

  
Analysis, Economy

The official PMIs from China are due at 0100GMT.

  • Manufacturing expected 44.8% m/m, prior 35.7%
  • Non-manufacturing expected 42.0% y/y, prior 29.6%
  • Composite prior 28.9
China went into the crisis earlier and have begun to emerge earlier. March data should begin to show improvement, February data is a low hurdle to clear.
Analysis I’ve seen on daily tracking of economic indicators from China are (slowly) showing a return to better activity. I won’t say ‘normal’, but activity is much better than in February.

US President Trump no longer pushing the US economy to reopen by Easter

  
Analysis, Economy
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I noted this already but its worth a separate post.

At this briefing to the press:
Says he is extending the government on dealing with virus outbreak to April 30
These are the social distancing and related guiltiness.
What this means is that Easter is no longer Trump’s target for reopening the US economy:
  • “that was aspirational’.
  • “We will be extending our guidelines to April 30 to slow the spread. On Tuesday, we will be finalizing these plans and providing a summary of our findings.”
  • “We can expect that by June 1 we will be well on our way to recovery.”
Says Easter expected to be the peak period of infection.
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