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OPEC+ agreed to keep output steady through April. US shale recovery is still a divisive topic.

A recap of the OPEC+ ‘no change’ meeting on March 4 via RBC (this is summary):

Saudi Arabia and OPEC announcing that they would forego any production increase for April.
Saudi Prince Abdulaziz continues to urge caution in the face of enduring uncertainties about the COVID-19 recovery, insisting that it is better to err on the side of prudence than opt for an ill-timed production increase.
On US shale:
  • Reviving shale production does not appear to be a principal concern for Prince Abdulaziz. When questioned about US production in the press conference, he first insisted that it was not a zero sum game but later suggested that the zenith of the shale revolution had already passed.
RBC say though:
  • We continue to contend that Russia remains concerned about giving yet another lifeline to US shale producers and bolstering a coercive US sanctions regime.
If you were following along during US time you’ll know oil prices rallid
A recap of the OPEC+ 'no change' meeting on March 4 via RBC (this is summary):

OPEC+ meeting summary is released. Saudi production cuts to remain. Russia and Kazakhstan allowed to increase production

OPEC releases the meeting summary

The 14th Meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers took place via video conference on Thursday March 4, 2021, under the Chairmanship of HRH Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Energy, and Co-Chair HE Alexander Novak, Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.

The Meeting welcomed the appointment of HE Mohammed Al-Fares, Minister of Petroleum of Kuwait and the return of HE Mohamed Arkab, Energy Minister of Algeria.

The Meeting emphasized the ongoing positive contributions of the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) in supporting a rebalancing of the global oil market in line with the historic decisions taken at the 10th (Extraordinary) OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting on 12 April 2020 to adjust downwards overall crude oil production and subsequent decisions.

The Ministers noted, with gratitude, the significant voluntary extra supply reduction made by Saudi Arabia, which took effect on 1 February for two months, which supported the stability of the market.

The Ministers also commended Saudi Arabia for the extension of the additional voluntary adjustments of 1 mb/d for the month of April 2021, exemplifying its leadership, and demonstrating its flexible and pre-emptive approach.

The Ministers approved a continuation of the production levels of March for the month of April, with the exception of Russia and Kazakhstan, which will be allowed to increase production by 130 and 20 thousand barrels per day respectively, due to continued seasonal consumption patterns.

The Meeting reviewed the monthly report prepared by the Joint Technical Committee (JTC), including the crude oil production data for the month of February.

It welcomed the positive performance of participating countries. Overall conformity with the original decision was 103 per cent, reinforcing the trend of aggregate high compliance by participating countries.

The Meeting noted that since the April 2020 meeting, OPEC and non-OPEC countries had withheld 2.3bn barrels of oil by end of January 2021, accelerating the oil market rebalancing.

The Meeting Extended special thanks to Nigeria for achieving full conformity in January 2021, and compensating its entire overproduced volumes.

The ministers thanked HE Timipre Sylva, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources of Nigeria, for his shuttle diplomacy as Special Envoy of the JMMC to Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon and South Sudan to discuss matters pertaining to conformity levels with the voluntary production adjustments and compensation of over-produced volumes.

In this regards the Ministers agreed to the request by several countries, which have not yet completed their compensation, for an extension of the compensation period until end of July 2021.

It urged all participants to achieve full conformity and make up for pervious compensation shortfalls, to reach the objective of market rebalancing and avoid undue delay in the process.

The Meeting observed that in December, stocks in OECD countries had fallen for the fifth consecutive month.

The Meeting recognized the recent improvement in the market sentiment by the acceptance and the rollout of vaccine programs and additional stimulus packages in key economies, but cautioned all participating countries to remain vigilant and flexible given the uncertain market conditions, and to remain on the course which had been voluntarily decided and which had hitherto reaped rewards.

The Ministers thanked the JTC and the OPEC Secretariat for their contributions to the meeting. The next meetings of the JMMC and OPEC and non-OPEC Ministers are scheduled for 31 March and 1 April 2021, respectively.

———————————————–

The Saudi energy minister is on the wires saying:
  • Country to that is voluntary cut gradually
  • we are not in a hurry to bring back voluntary oil cut
  • will bring back voluntary cut over longer then one month

US weekly EIA energy inventories +21,563 vs -1300K expected

Weekly US oil inventories

  • Prior was +1285K
  • Gasoline -13,624K vs -2500K
  • Distillate -9719K vs -3750K
  • Refinery utilization -12.6% vs +4.0% exp
API data released late yesterday:
  • Crude +735K
  • Cushing +732K
  • Gasoline -9993K
  • Distillates -9053K
I don’t know what analysts were looking for here. We all knew there were massive refinery shutdowns down to the cold in Texas. That led to a big backup in oil inventories and big draws in products.
Refineries are playing catch-up now but I’m not sure this changes the overall supply-demand mix. Though given a May US reopening, we could be having a huge driving season come summer and cracks could blow out.

Oil falls late to settle below $60 for the first time since Feb 19

Oil dips into settlement

Oil dips into settlement
WTI crude oil settled $0.89 lower to $59.75 on a late-day drop. It had spent most of New York trading around $60.60 after testing these levels in Asia but a wave of selling hit late to quickly knock it 80-cents lower.
There’s some anxiety in the market ahead of the OPEC meetings and decision on Thursday. Some optimistic comments from Saudi officials today have people worried that they’ll announce an phased-out end to production curbs altogether along with a quick 1.5 mbpd increase for April.

Oil – OPEC+ meeting week – Russia, Saudi are potentially on opposite sides of the pump it up debate

  • PEC+ will be making a decision on April output, with many expecting the cartel and its allies will bump production higher from April. Saudi Arabia is, however, urging caution on supply increases (at least its doing so publicly), while Russia is signalling it wants to push output higher. 
Via Platts now, a little more:

 

  • Many analysts, including OPEC’s own, have concluded the market can likely absorb a 1.5 million b/d production increase without tipping into surplus, but releasing all that crude at once risks spooking traders and unraveling the price rally. Maintaining the cuts, however, could overheat the market and erode still fragile oil demand.
  • Potentially on opposing sides once again are Russia, which has consistently pushed to pump more, and Saudi Arabia, whose energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has urged the alliance to go slow.

 

Here is the link to Platts for much more (may be gated)

The background to the meeting is an improving picture for oil demand:
  • Fiscal stimulus
  • coronavirus vaccine rollout
  • commodities on a price upswing
  • tightening oil market
  • Texas deep freeze shut-in US production temporarily

Oil – heads up for the OPEC+ meeting this week – eyes on supply easings (maybe …)

The meeting (via remote videoconference) of OPEC and non-Opec (i.e. OPEC+) is on March 4.

The background to the meeting is
  • a strong rise in pieces to pre-pandemic levels (oil is up again today)
  • The US is recovering some output from the big freeze
  • OPEC+ has constrained supply
  • as vaccine rollout accelerates round the globe the ropect is for further rising demand
OPEC+ will be making a decision on April output, with many expecting the cartel and its allies will bump production higher from April. Saudi Arabia is, however, urging caution on supply increases (at least its doing so publicly), while Russia is signalling it want to puch output higher.
A small bump in output is likely to see prices remain steady to higher. However, continued high prices will encourage US shale operators back into increased investment and hence new supply in the market. OPEC+ is walking a fine line on its objectives.

Crude oil inventories showed a build of 1.285M vs – 6.5M estimate

Crude oil inventories are congruent with the private data

  • crude oil inventories +1.285M vs. -6.5M estimate
  • gasoline inventories 0.012M vs -3.5M estimate
  • distillates -4.969M vs. -4.00M estimate
  • refinery utilization -14.5% vs. -7.0% estimate
  • crude implied demand 14115 vs. 17735 last week
  • gasoline demand 7723.9 vs. 8982.7 last week
  • distillates 46339 vs. 5424.9 last week
The price of crude oil for April delivery is trading at $63.04. The high price reached $63.09. That is a new cycle high. The high price yesterday reached $63

OPEC+ meet next week -oil market chatter is of a potential Saudi / Russia clash on output curbs

OPEC+ meets next on March 4. The two questions occupying the oil market are:

  1. whether Saudi Arabia scales back its 1 million bbl/d voluntary cut (which is due to end next month)
  2. and whether there will be an additional increase in supply from the whole group

Recently, Russian Deputy PM Novak expressed support for a gradual increase in oil output, which comes as demand is seen improving as COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out.

Saudi Arabia is said to want to maintain output pretty much around the current level.
Any agreement to boost supply would take effect from the following month, April, most likely.

OPEC+ meets next on March 4. The two questions occupying the oil market are: 

Oil gains nearly 4%. A look at spec positioning

Crude prices sizzle again

Crude prices sizzle again
Two days of oil selling late last week on OPEC+ and Iran worries were met with a wave of buying today on broad commodity buying, a bullish Goldman call and Iran signaling it won’t give up ground in the nuclear deal.
The chart itself has overrun but the recent consolidations around $47 and $53 show the buying appetite and today’s quick rebound is impressive. My read is that enthusiasm also isn’t high because there’s so much fear and skepticism around the future of oil.
Specs in the CFTC report are long but if you look at it historically, it’s not a red flag and argues that there’s plenty of more room for buying on that side.
CFTC oil
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