Oil – heads up for the OPEC+ meeting this week – eyes on supply easings (maybe …)

The meeting (via remote videoconference) of OPEC and non-Opec (i.e. OPEC+) is on March 4.

The background to the meeting is
  • a strong rise in pieces to pre-pandemic levels (oil is up again today)
  • The US is recovering some output from the big freeze
  • OPEC+ has constrained supply
  • as vaccine rollout accelerates round the globe the ropect is for further rising demand
OPEC+ will be making a decision on April output, with many expecting the cartel and its allies will bump production higher from April. Saudi Arabia is, however, urging caution on supply increases (at least its doing so publicly), while Russia is signalling it want to puch output higher.
A small bump in output is likely to see prices remain steady to higher. However, continued high prices will encourage US shale operators back into increased investment and hence new supply in the market. OPEC+ is walking a fine line on its objectives.