Archives of “Analysis” category
rssThis is the deepest 10-2 inversion of the yield curve that has occurred since the year 2000. The deepest inversion since 1981 is just a few basis points away.
Ongoing criminal investigations, including the FBI’s search for Trump.
While not directly applicable to forex, the news of a judge granting a search warrant to the FBI given probably cause of criminal behaviour is attracting a lot of interest. Given Trump’s close links to Putin and other nefarious actors, his attempts at a coup, his leading of a violent cop-killing insurrection, and other activites, there could be more to this than meets the eye. I guess we’ll find out in time.
Reuters have a recap up of all the legal investigations into former President Trump. Allegations include:
- boxes of White House documents from Trump’s Florida home, some of which contained classified materials
- trying to overturn his 2020 election defeat
- obstruct any official proceeding
- raised some $250 million from supporters to advance fraudulent claims in court that he won the election, but steered much of the money elsewhere
- efforts to influence the Georgia’s 2020 election results
The list goes on, Reuters link is here for more.
The ex-Prez playing golf a few weeks ago.

Thought For A Day
European stocks join the party with strong closing gains
- Stoxx 600 +0.8%
- German DAX +0.9%
- UK FTSE 100 +0.7%
- French CAC +0.9%
- Italy MIB +0.6%
- Spain IBEX +1.3%
US stocks are back to June levels while the Dax has a long way to go. Of course, in Europe they’re paying about 10x more in the forward power market.
WSJ: Iran, US close to reviving nuclear deal, but unclear Iran will accept the final deal
The Wall Street Journal (gated) with this on the latest on the talks:
- Negotiations between Iran and the U.S. on reviving the 2015 nuclear deal are close to completion, the European Union’s senior negotiator at the talks said Sunday evening, but it remained unclear whether Tehran will accept the final deal.
- The text of an agreement could be closed in coming hours, said the EU’s Enrique Mora, the coordinator of the talks. However, Iran must still decide whether to set aside its demand that the nuclear deal can only be revived if a multiyear United Nations atomic agency probe into its nuclear program is closed.
Oil traders are watching the negotiations. If agreement is cemented it’ll (eventually) mean more Iranian oil flowing back to global markets. Both the US and Iran would be in favour of this.
Stay tuned I guess.
Oil update:

Moody’s has cut Italy’s outlook to ‘negative’ (from ‘stable’)
EUR traders will be keeping an eye on Italian politics ahead of the September 25 election.
Italian politics are volatile, an alliance formed late last week has been called off already:
Thought For A Day
Crucial Update : #NIKKEI #HANGSENG #BOVESPA #MERVAL #RTSI #FTSE100 #CAC #DAX #ShanghaiComposite -#AnirudhSethi

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An Update : #SPX500 #NASDAQCOMPOSITE #DJIA —– #AnirudhSethi

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