Brexit still hangs in the balance
- UK affirmed at AA
- See 1.1% GDP this year with upside risks
- Lower 2020 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.5% on Brexit uncertainty and slower global growth
- Full report
Recent data revisions suggest the UK economy has been more resilient to post-referendum Brexit uncertainty than previously thought. Sizeable revisions to business investment indicate firms started to reduce investment from mid-2017 rather than in 2015 as the previous vintage suggested. The overall level of business investment is 3.3% above end-2015 according to the new data. The household saving ratio was also revised up to 6.2% in 1Q19 from 4.4% under the previous vintage. Households appear to have been more cautious than previously believed. This suggests that the household sector is in a somewhat stronger position to withstand the impact of a potential economic shock.
Forex futures positioning data from the CFTC for the week ending October 15, 2019:
- EUR short 75K vs 75K short last week. Unchanged
- GBP short 73K vs 73K short last week. Unchanged
- JPY short 7K vs 11K long last week. Longs switch to shorts in an 18K drop
- CHF short 13k vs 11k short last week. Shorts trimmed by 1K
- AUD short 48k vs 46k short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- NZD short 40K vs 38K short last week. Shorts increased by 2K
- CAD long 13K vs 5K long last week. Longs trimmed by 1K
- Prior week
The big moves in sterling came last week and I’m surprised there wasn’t any covering through Tuesday. That’s good news if you’re long GBP because it leaves lots of juice to squeeze.
A few big names weighed and tech struggled
- S&P 500 down 12 points to 2986 (-0.4%)
- DJIA -0.9%
- Nasdaq -0.8%
- S&P 500 +0.5%
- DJIA -0.2%
- Nasdaq +0.4%
The Federal Reserve blackout starts tomorrow
WSJ reports on the matter
The report says that Trump’s top economic advisers warned him that continued escalation of trade tensions could imperil the economy and hurt his chances of reelection, according to people familiar with the meeting that took place.
“Where’s Peter?” Mr. Trump said, according to two people familiar with the meeting. “Get Navarro in here.”
What if I told you that a no-deal Brexit now hinges on Boris Johnson winning the parliamentary vote tomorrow?
Before we get into the thick of things, let us set out what exactly is at stake tomorrow. Clearly, Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal motion is the main event but what does it mean really?
Is there any way to avoid this altogether?
I feel like I have been reading this same headline for years now
Just in case you missed out, Aramco has delayed its planned IPO launch again earlier today. They are out with a statement now to say that they will engage with shareholders on the matter and that the IPO timing will depend on market conditions.