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RBNZ hikes its cash rate by 50bp as expected

RBNZ takes the Official Cash Rate to 3% from 2.5%

RBZN projections for the path ahead:

  • sees OCR at 3.69% in December this year (up from its previous projection at 3.41%)
  • sees OCR at 4.1 in September 2023 (from 3.95%)
  • sees OCR at 4.1% in December 2023 (from 3.95%)
  • sees OCR at 3.65% in September 2025

On the currency, sees the NZ dollar TWI around 71.7 in September 2023 (prior was 71.8))

More:

  • Conditions need to continue to tighten
  • Core consumer price inflation remains too high and labour resources remain scarce
  • Range of indicators highlight broad-based domestic pricing pressures

RBNZ Governor Orr new conference is next, due at 0300 GMT:

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Orr

EU sees Iran’s reply to nuclear deal as ‘constructive’

The latest draft of the JCPOA was framed by Europeans as a ‘take it or leave it’ offer but Iran seemed to reject that right away.

Their official reply hasn’t been seen yet but a report says the EU sees Iran’s reply as ‘constructive’.

Front-month oil prices haven’t moved much in oil.

oil

However there is some selling in longer-dated oil.

At issue are guaratees that Iran wants that the US won’t end the deal the second a new President is elected (presumably it’s Trump they’re worried about). The US says it can’t hold a future administration to the deal while Iran doesn’t want to give up its nuclear progress for as little as two years of sanctions-free trading.

They’re working on a compromise where foreign companies may not be sanctioned by the US for a specific period if/when the US leaves the deal. An FT report said the US has agreed to extend the time that companies must comply ‘significantly’ beyond the 90-180 days currently outlined.

Focus on Decisions, Not Outcomes –#AnirudhSethi

2,893,277 Focus Photos - Free & Royalty-Free Stock Photos from DreamstimeTraders who are successful are able to quickly correct their mistakes because they have a better understanding of the consequences of making decisions under uncertainty. They know that it’s not always necessary to take the trade that wasn’t meant to be in order to salvage something good from the situation.They know that sometimes good ideas don’t work out, since there is always some uncertainty involved. This makes it more likely that they will be wrong some of the time. Great traders always have a reason for putting a trade on, and they always have a reason for taking a trade off. The traders in the market focus on the reasons for their trades, rather than the short-term results of those trades.

Prepare To Be Wrong – #AnirudhSethi

Preparing to Be WrongIf you don’t know what the future will bring and choose a trade with a certain outcome, you might be wrong. In many cases, it’s more likely that you’ll lose money when trading. What really matters in the end is the total amount of money that is won or lost, not whether you are right more often than wrong. Great traders are comfortable making decisions even if they know they might be wrong.

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