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Trading should be effortless – #AnirudhSethi

I believe that when I trade well, shooting fish in a barrel is a perfect description. Everything works. I don’t need to be excessively patient with my positions. The money comes in very quickly. Trading should be like this. It was the opposite throughout the first two months of this year. So I performed the only alternative. I acknowledged there was no way to improve my portfolio and acknowledged that my attempts had not been effective. It was similar to folding in poker when you get a terrible hand. Thus, I folded. Now I’m waiting for the subsequent hand. If it is a bad one, I’ll fold again. If a few of my trades begin to go my way, I’ll push the envelope and intensify my risk exposure and trade aggressively.

Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Economic Symposium – full agenda

The event of note for Friday, 26 August 2022, is Powell’s speech at 10am NY time (1400 GMT).

Check that first link above for more speakers, including those from the European Central Bank. They’ll likely give further clues for what is ahead for the ECB at faces clear and present danger from the energy-shock recession imminent and surging inflation:

  • Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole is the second-most importantnt

Major indices close at session highs ahead of Powell today

The major US indices are pricing at the session highs ahead of the Fed Chairs Jackson Hole speech tomorrow at 10 AM ET, and more hawkish comments from Fed officials today.

The gains are led by the Nasdaq indice which got a boost from lower yields. After two bad auctions on Tuesday and Wednesday, buyers showed up for the 7 year note auction which helped to push yields lower and boost risk on sentiment.

The final numbers are showing:

  • Dow rose 322.53 points or 0.98% at 33291.79
  • S&P rose 58.35 points or 1.41% at 4199.11
  • Nasdaq rose 207.75 points or 1.67% at 12639.28
  • Russell 2000 rose 29.34 points or 1.52% at 1964.63

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The Disconcerting Effect of Sudden Losses and Gains– #AnirudhSethi

The act of suddenly winning or losing large sums of money is very unbalancing to the mind. A few years ago, I was at Monte Carlo in the company of a well-known businessman. Every day, he would play roulette just for fun, as he was normally methodical, conservative, temperate, and cool-headed. He was a mature man and adhered to an unalterable rule to keep his losses at $200 per sitting, so he would always stop playing if he lost his money. He normally gambled two dollars on the numbers, and he would not double them until one turn of the wheel when his number won. He usually played three numbers at once; never more than four. For ten consecutive sittings, he lost his $200 stake every time. I saw him get up and leave the room in apparent disgust. An hour or so later I saw him at a roulette table in another room, stacking his chips on a dozen or more numbers. As a result, if he exceeded the limit, the watchful croupier would reduce his bets and push some disks back to him. In addition to betting on the numbers, he placed a thousand-franc bet on one of the three rows, a second thousand on the colors, and a like amount on the middle dozen. In one run, he lost seventeen consecutive bets on red, each of which cost him a thousand franc. His eyes were bloodshot, his fingers twitched, and he was obviously in a state of great distress. He continued to play for about three hours, at which point he suddenly got up, looked dazed for a moment, then left the table. He said that he lost $20,000, but he had no recollection of anything that happened during the game nor of the amount he was betting. It is a well-known fact that many rich men send printed cards to the proprietor of a well-known gambling club in the South, directing

The act of sudden winning or losing of large sums of money is extremely disbalancing to the mind. Monte Carlo a few years ago, I was in the company of a well-known business man who frequently played roulette as a pastime. He was calm, conservative, temperate, and cool-headed, and he always limited his losses to $200. When his wager was lost, he quit gambling. He usually bet two dollars on the numbers, and a single turn of the wheel was the only instance when his number won. He usually bet on three numbers, never more than four. For ten consecutive sittings, he lost $200 every time. When he left the room in a huff, I saw him gambling at a roulette table in another room. When he surpassed the limit, the watchful croupier would push back a few discs. In addition to staking a thousand franc note on one of the three columns and a thousand franc note on the colors, he was staking another thousand franc note on the center dozen. For one run, he lost seventeen consecutive bets on red, which cost him a thousand franc each. His eyes were bloodshot, his hands twitched, and he was obviously in a state of great agitation. After playing for three hours or so, he abruptly got up, stood in dazed silence for a moment, then left the table. Twenty thousand dollars were lost, and he had no recollection of anything that happened on the table, nor did he realize the amount he was betting. It is not widely known that rich men frequently send printed cards of instructions to the proprietor of a well-known gambling club in the South, directing him to refuse them further credit and to stop their play. If stock-market traders imposed similar restrictions on their dealings, losses would be greatly reduced.

Germany August Ifo business climate index 88.5 vs 86.8 expected

  • Prior 88.6; revised to 88.7
  • Current conditions 97.5 vs 96.0 expected
  • Prior 97.7
  • Outlook 80.3 vs 79.0 expected
  • Prior 80.3; revised to 80.4

The headline reading is a beat on estimates but still softer than it was in July. The same goes as well for the current conditions and outlook indices. In short, it tells that overall business sentiment remains soft but it seems to be another case of it could have been worse as economic conditions continue to weaken going into the winter months.

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