Iran state media reporting statements from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

• Says Iran has submitted a constructive response to US proposals on terms to revive the 2015 nuclear deal
• Says the response is aimed at finalising the talks

This saga has been going on for months and months and months. Perhaps we are getting close to finalising talks. Or perhaps not.

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The point for oil traders is the view that if an agreement can be reached then it eases access to oil markets for Iranian exports and thus there is greater supply and thus, at the margin, prices will fall. It’ll take time to ramp up Iranian oil exports of course. And, also of course, that fall in price is based on the ‘all else being equal’ assumption. Which, it never is. In this instance, for example, there may be a reduction in supply from OPEC+ if more Iranian oil enters the market.

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Oil update:

• “We now expect ECB to hike 75bp next week, which will be followed by 50bp in October and 25bp in December, but acknowledge the increased uncertainty on the two latter hike size expectations. This is +25bp for our previous rate hike expectations at both the September and the October meetings, respectively, and we now see the endpoint of the ECB deposit rate at 1.5%.”
  
  “We believe the euro area will face a recession and ECB will hike into that, however, we also acknowledge that even without the ECB tightening, the European economy was in a severe situation to begin with a worsening energy crisis.”