Archives of “Analysis” category

rss

Biden says preliminary intelligence contests missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia

  
Analysis, Politics

US President Biden speaking.

  • Says he briefed NATO, G7 members on his talks with Poland
  • Leaders have agreed to support investing to figure out exactly what happened
  • Leaders will then determine next steps after finding out what ahppened
  • Russia continues to escalate its attacks in Ukraine
  • There is preliminary information that contests whether Poland incident was due to a missile fired from Russia
  • Based on the trajectory its unlikely the missile was fired from Russia

Federal Reserve speakers due Tuesday, 15 November 2022 – Harker and Cook

  
  Analysis

1400 GMT brings Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker

  • speaks on the economic outlook before the Global Interdependence Center 40th Annual Monetary & Trade Conference and Global Citizen Award Ceremony

1400 GMT also brings Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook

  • participates in virtual discussion, “Post-Covid Challenges for Women and Underrepresented Groups” before the Diversity and Inclusion in Economics, Finance, and Central Banking Conference

1500 GMT Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr

  • testifies on “Oversight of Financial Regulators: A Strong Banking and Credit Union System for Main Street” before the Senate Banking Committee, in Washington
  • Barr spoke earlier today: Fed’s Barr says inflation is far too high

It looks like Harker is more likely to express views on his economic and policy outlook given the venues and topics for these speeches.

Philadelphia Fed Pres. Harker

Philadelphia Fed Pres. Patrick Harker

China October data – retail sales fall y/y, industrial production up

  
Analysis, Economy

Chinese economic activity data for October 2022. Both sales and output missed expectations.

china otco data 15 November 2022

October retail sales fell y/y. They last fell back in May when Shanghai was locked down. Rolling COVID restrictions and a collapsing property market were negative influences on this data for October. Yesterday I posted on moves from Chinese authorities to address COVID and property woes and boost the economy

Other data released included:

Surveyed Jobless Rate 5.5% y/y

  • expected 5.5%, prior 5.5%

Property Investment YTD -8.8% y/y

  • expected -8.3%, prior -8.0%

Fixed Assets Ex-Rural +5.8% YTD y/y, also a miss

  • expected 5.9%, prior prev 5.9%

Yellen seeing benefits for buyers of Russian oil with the price capped

  
  Analysis

Moves from Western allies to cap the price of Russian oil will be a benefit to others says US Treasury Secretary Yellen.

  • Beijing will benefit from the new price cap mechanism to be imposed in December
  • China and other buyers of Russian oil will have more leverage to negotiate lower prices
  • “We see the price cap is something that benefits China benefits India, and benefits all purchasers of Russian oil,”

If Russia’s oil was completely removed from global markets the price of remaining oil would skyrocket. Biden would not be happy with this.

With the price cap to proceed from December 5, Yellen looks to have played and won.

Selected remarks from US Treasury Secretary Yellen's prepared speech to the US Senate banking

IMF on global economy – “the outlook is gloomier”, particularly in Europe.

  
Analysis, Economy

The International Monetary Fund has written in a piece prepared for the summit of G20 leaders in Indonesia,

recent high-frequency indicators “confirm that the outlook is gloomier,” particularly in Europe
It said recent purchasing manager indices that gauge manufacturing and services activity signaled weakness in most Group of 20 major economies, with economic activity set to contract while inflation remained stubbornly high
IMF citing:

 

  • tightening monetary policy
  • triggered by persistently high and broad-based inflation
  • weak growth momentum in China
  • ongoing supply disruptions and food insecurity caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine

—

Info via Reuters.

Go to top