Analysis Archives - Page 118 of 1770

China’s refining sector is set up mainly to serve its domestic market
The government controls how much fuel can be sent abroad via a quota system
It had 17.5 million barrels a day of capacity at the end of 2020, and will reach 20 million by 2025
China’s big state-owned refiners, which make up around three-quarters of the industry, were running at around 71 per cent of capacity on June 10

Output in China has been subdued for many months. china gasoiline

Thought For A Day

21-Jun-22 04:05 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

PBOC leaves one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.70%, as expected

20-Jun-22 07:08 am

Anirudh Sethi

PBOC

Prior was 3.70%
5-year loan prime rate 4.45% vs 4.45% prior

There are no surprises here. In almost every case, China leaks rate moves to the press in the days leading up to a decision, just like the Fed did last week.

In other news, China today reported 38 new confirmed covid cases in mainland China versus 36 a day ago.

BOJ offers to buy unlimited amounts of 5-10 year JGBs

20-Jun-22 07:07 am

Analysis

Anirudh Sethi

This is a standard move from the BOJ every day but it underscores their commitment to capping 10-year rates at 0.25%. This is a heluva experiment they’re running and now own 65% of outstanding 10 years. Kuroda

Macron loses parliamentary majority

20-Jun-22 06:32 am

Anirudh Sethi

Macron faces tough battle for control of parliament as France votes The euro has largely shrugged off the results of France’s parliamentary election on Sunday. The result was the loss of the absolute majority in the lower house for Macron’s allies. That will water down his ambitions in his second term. The numbers aren’t complete yet but his alliance is on track to win 234 seats, well short of the 289 needed for a majority.

The purchasing power of the main currencies since 1971 $EUR $USD $GPB

20-Jun-22 06:28 am

Anirudh Sethi

Yen weakness creeps in as the BOJ fallout continues

20-Jun-22 06:24 am

Anirudh Sethi

The relief valve for last week’s frenzied trading was the Bank of Japan decision on Friday. It was a week where it felt like anything was possible after the Fed 75 bps hike and the surprise 50 bps from the Swiss National Bank.

But Kuroda and the BOJ kept their hand steady, leaving policy unchanged. The yen had rallied more than 200 pips on nerves ahead of the decision but gave it all back afterwards. That momentum is continuing today as all major global currencies make gains against the yen as Tokyo begins the trading week. Risk sentiment is also positive with S&P 500 futures up 25 points.

With that, USD/JPY is up 32 pips to 135.27. That puts it within striking distance of last Tuesday’s 24-year high of 135.60. If that level gives way it will accelerate yen selling and we could see a rapid squeeze higher as we chew into that late-90s top of 147.63.