Slumping vehicle production played a large role in the stunning collapse in Japanese industrial output in May:

• Total worldwide production at eight Japanese automakers declined on the year for a third straight month in May as lockdowns in Chinese cities continued to hold up shipments of key parts.
• Output fell … more than 30% from May 2019
• supply chains look unlikely to return to normal for some time to come.
• Six of the eight companies logged declines for May. Only Nissan Motor and Suzuki Motor reported growth, reflecting particularly weak showings in 2021. Daihatsu Motor, Mazda Motor and Honda Motor all suffered double-digit drops.

Link for more on this.

Info via Reuters report.

Saudi Arabia may raise prices of light crude grades to Asia for the second straight month in August on the back of record distillate margins and strong spot premiums for Middle Eastern oil this month.

• The official selling price (OSP) for Saudi’s flagship Arab Light crude could rise by about $2.4 a barrel from the previous month, according to nine refining sources surveyed by Reuters on June 28-29.

WTI price update following its drop on Wednesday, US time. 15 min candles:

‘QE but not QE’. That is the path the ECB is going to take in battling fragmentation.

Reuters is reporting that the central bank is set to announce the new tool on 21 July, alongside its first rate hike in more than a decade. But policymakers are said to be considering whether to announce the size and duration of the upcoming bond-buying scheme. There are said to be different options presented by ECB staff on the matter, so it may be that policymakers will not feel too comfortable in making it public this early on.

The sources say that one of the pros of announcing a large envelope would at least reaffirm the ECB’s commitment to fighting fragmentation but if the size is deemed as “too small” by bond traders, it could backfire instead. Keeping things vague might help to avoid the latter but at the same time, it could leave a lot of questions unanswered – which also isn’t a good thing.

As mentioned here yesterday, the ECB will bring back bond-buying alongside ‘sterilisation’ to try and convince markets of its goals. But again, whether or not this will work in practice is certainly going to be interesting to watch. Essentially, the ECB is going to backstop Italy at the expense of others so that will definitely stir up some controversy.

• Calls on all partners to avoid unjustified restrictive trade measures that risk food insecurity
• Stands by commitment to keep food and agricultural markets open
• Calls on those partners with large food stockpiles to make them available without distorting markets

So much fluff. And this just adds to the proposal to put a price cap on Russian oil, which I still don’t get how they are going to go about it. Good luck trying to convince India or China to get on board for that.