From the Monetary Authority of Singapore, the country’s central bank:

• Global inflation seen easing in 2023 as major c.banks withdraw policy accommodation and supply challenges addressed
• However, global inflation outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty
• Additional strains on supply chains could cause further price shocks
• Singapore economic growth is expected to moderate further in 2023, in line with slowdown in its major trading partners
• As of now, we expect neither a recession nor a stagflation in Singapore next year”
• Effects of its four monetary policy tightening moves are still working their way through the economy and will continue to dampen inflation over the next 12 mths
• to prevent further build-up in labour cost pressures, it is important that the inflow of non-resident workers continues unimpeded
• closely monitoring any systemic risk to financial system arising from debt related stresses in corporate and household sectors
• c.bank supervisors have stepped up engagement with banks on their asset quality, including adequacy of provisioning against possible asset quality deterioration
• stress tests on balance sheets of SGX-listed firms show that most corporates would be resilient to interest rate and earnings shocks
• stress tests by mas suggest most households should be able to service their debts even under scenarios of sharp interest rate hikes and significant income losses

The USD has moved to a new session well vs the EUR, GBP, CAD, and AUD in the last few minutes of trading.

• EURUSD. The EURUSD has seen the price move above the earlier session at 1.01748 two a new session high of 1.01543. The next target comes against the July 8 highs at 1.01906, followed by the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June 27 high at 1.02047
• GBPUSD. The GBPUSD has now extended to a new session high of 1.20134. The 50% midpoint of the move down from the June 27 hi is the next major target of 1.20456. Risk remains at the broken 38.2% retracement at 1.1978. Stay above that level keeps the buyers still in play and in the control.
• USDCAD. The USDCAD is now moved below its floor area between 1.2933 and 1.2935. That level was home to swing lows from July 8, July 11, and July 13. So their downside targets include 1.29147, 1.29018, and 1.28845.
• AUDUSD. The AUDUSD trend to a new high of 0.6847. On Friday, the price closed 200 hour moving average and 0.67833. The price has been able to stay above that moving average level today and extend further to the upside. There is some minor resistance at 0.6852. The high price from July 7 reached 0.6874. The 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June 3 high is up at 0.69106. Breaking an staying above the 200 hour moving average was key for a more bullish bias today. There is room to roam given the sharp move down since the June high at 0.72823. The cycle low bottomed last Thursday at 0.66809. That took the price down over 700 pips in the 30 trading days. Getting to the 38.2% retracement would be the minimum retracement target.

• Domestic sight deposits CHF 639.8 bn vs CHF 635.2 bn prior

A slight increase in overall sight deposits, which isn’t indicative of much as it has been fairly stable in the past few months. The long-term trend is still upwards but for now, there isn’t much suggestion that the SNB is intervening too heavily in the market.