• MON: Germany Ifo Survey (Jul), US National Activity Index (Jun)
• TUE: NBH Announcement, US Monthly Home Prices (May), US Richmond Fed Index (Jul)
• WED: FOMC Announcement, Chinese Industrial Profits (Jun), Australian CPI (Q2), US Durable Goods (Jun)
• THU: EZ Sentiment Survey (Jul), US GDP Advance (Q2), US PCE Advance (Q2)
• FRI: Australian PPI (Q2), German Flash GDP (Q2); German Unemployment (Jul), EZ Flash CPI (Jul), US PCE (Jun), US Chicago PMI (Jul), Canadian GDP (May), US Dallas Fed PCE (Jun), BoJ SOO

NBH ANNOUNCEMENT (TUE): Based on recent commentary the NBH will likely decide to conduct a further hike to their Base Rate which currently stands at 9.75%, at the same level as their One-Week Deposit Rate following a 200bp increase. ING looks for a 1.25% increase given it’s the average of the last two meetings 50bp and 200bp moves; however, caveating that with expectations so high, the bar for a disappointment is low and EUR/HUF could revert back to 410 over the summer. At the last update, Deputy Governor Virag said hikes will continue in determined steps, altering from their prior “gradual” language. Adding, that hikes are set to continue until such a time as when CPI is seen peaking; for reference, the last inflation release was prior to the One-Week’s 200bp move and had the headline YY lifting to 11.7% (prev. 10.7%, exp. 11.5%). The next inflation print is due on August 9th. Elsewhere, at the meeting, Virag added that they will be acting against FX movements which pose a sustained threat to price stability. A pledge that has been followed by days of concerted action from the NBH on this front, providing over EUR 1.5bln of liquidity to banks since at daily swap tenders. (more…)

The Fed meeting will culminate with the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday at 2PM. The Fed is expected to add another 75 basis points which will get the target range for Fed Funds to 2.25% -2.5%. That also gets the rate to the neutral rate range implied by Fed officials. The Fed is on a mission toward above neutral as they look to snuff out inflation NOW.

In addition to the rate decision, the 2nd quarter GDP for the US will be released (it is the first cut or advanced reading), but it will show if the US went through back-to-back quarter declines which is technically needed to define a recession. The expectations is for a 0.4% gain, but the Atlanta Fed GDP-Now estimate is modeling a -1.6% decline in its latest results. The GDP will be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM ET.

The decision and the GDP will certainly shape the forex and other markets, but so will a slew of key earnings from some of the larger capitalized companies. The stronger dollar is likely to be a headwind for a number of those reporting.

Below is a list of those scheduled earnings.

Monday, July 25

• Alphabet
• Whirlpool

Tuesday, July 26

• 3M
• GE
• Corning
• Kimberly Clark
• McDonald’s
• Microsoft
• Chipotle
• General Motors
• Coca-Cola
• Stryker Corp.
• Visa
• Texas Instruments

Wednesday, July 27

• Boeing
• Bristol-Myers Squibb
• Boston Scientific
• Kraft Heinz
• Ford
• General Dynamics
• Meta-platforms
• T-Mobile
• Shopify
• ServiceNow

Thursday, July 28

• Southwest Airlines
• Amazon
• Apple
• Intel
• Merck and Company
• Honeywell international
• Pfizer
• MasterCard

Friday, July 29

• Phillips 66
• Chevron Corp.
• Procter & Gamble
• Colgate-Palmolive
• Exxon Mobil

• House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on Thursday (July 21) refused to confirm or deny a reported trip to Taiwan, but indicated that the U.S. military had expressed concerns that her plane “would get shot down” by Chinese forces as it neared Taiwan airspace.
• The Financial Times on Tuesday (July 19) cited six sources saying Pelosi will head a delegation that will visit Taiwan in August.
• … Pelosi said, “I think what the president was saying is maybe the military was afraid our plane would get shot down, or something like that, by the Chinese.” She then qualified her answer by saying, “I don’t know exactly. I didn’t see it. I didn’t hear it.”

China’s Commerce Ministry will extend anti-dumping duties on grain oriented flat-rolled electrical steel imported from Japan, South Korea, and the EU for five years from July 23

Headlines via Reuters – no further details at this stage