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Oil gains nearly 4%. A look at spec positioning

Crude prices sizzle again

Crude prices sizzle again
Two days of oil selling late last week on OPEC+ and Iran worries were met with a wave of buying today on broad commodity buying, a bullish Goldman call and Iran signaling it won’t give up ground in the nuclear deal.
The chart itself has overrun but the recent consolidations around $47 and $53 show the buying appetite and today’s quick rebound is impressive. My read is that enthusiasm also isn’t high because there’s so much fear and skepticism around the future of oil.
Specs in the CFTC report are long but if you look at it historically, it’s not a red flag and argues that there’s plenty of more room for buying on that side.
CFTC oil

US equities claw back loses but tech continues to lag

S&P 500 pares loses

S&P 500 pares loses
It’s increasingly difficult to talk about ‘the US equity market’ without splitting up the parts.
Today we have:
  • DJIA +0.4%
  • Russell 200 +0.3%
  • S&P 500 -0.2%
  • Nasdaq -1.4%
Those are four very different stories and reflect a tech sector that looks like a leveraged bond bet.
It also reflects a market that’s struggling to cop with higher yields that aren’t exactly ‘high’ by any historical measure.
I generally look to the S&P 500 as ‘the US market’ and that’s always over-simplified but moreso now than any time I can remember.
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