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TD says the $1.9tln US economic stimulus package is not priced in, rates to rise further

TD Securities see further rises for US 10 year treasuries yield citing the US$1.9tln packaged and further stimulus later in this year:

 

  • 1.3% in the near term
  • 1.45% by year-end

 

On the twin mandates:

 

  • see the unemployment rate lower
  • but do not expect inflation to rise very quickly

 

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Higher US rates, if TD gets this right, will be a supportive factor for the USD

Monday is US holiday. Enjoy the peace and quiet because there is a tsunami of Fed speakers to follow.

We get a break from the Federal Reserve talking heads on Monday (for the holiday known widely as Presidents Day) but they are back with a vengeance from Tuesday.

Here you go, print this out and stick it … on the fridge …
Tuesday 16 February 2021
  • 1610 GMT Bowman (member of the Board of Governors) Speaks to Community Banking Conference
  • 1730 GMT (President of the Kansas City Fed) George Discusses Economic Outlook
  • 1800 GMT (President of the Dallas Fed) Kaplan Discusses the Economy
  • 2000 GMT (President of the San Francisco Fed) Daly Discusses Economy and Inequality
Wednesday 17 February
  • 1400 GMT (President of the Richmond Fed) Barkin Speaks on Panel
  • 1415 GMT (President of the Boston Fed) Rosengren Takes Part in Panel Discussion
  • 1900 GMT FOMC Meeting Minutes (from January 27)
Thursday 18 February
  • 1300 GMT (a member of the Board of Governors) Brainard Speaks at IIF Climate Finance Summit
  • 1500 GMT (President of the Atlanta Fed) Bostic Discusses Educational Inequality
Friday 19 February
  • 1300 GMT (President of the Richmond Fed) Barkin Speaks on Panel
  • 1600 GMT (President of the Boston Fed) Rosengren Speaks Yale Economic Symposium
Monday’s holiday:
  • New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq will be closed
  • interest rate markets will be largely closed also
  • futures, options on CME exchanges will halt …. no gold, crude trade on these exchanges
  • commodities trade on Globex will be (roughly) half-day
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