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Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.14% at 29,520.07

A more tepid end to the week for Japanese stocks

Nikkei 12-02
The equities momentum appears to be pausing for breath towards the latter stages of the week, with S&P 500 futures also seen down 0.1% so far today.
On the week though, the Nikkei posted another 2.6% gains as it stays on the hunt to hit the 30,000 mark – keeping at its highest levels since August 1990 this week.
In the major currencies space, things are mostly little changed as the market continues to figure itself out ahead of the long weekend in the US.
USD/JPY is a touch higher around 104.85 but just be mindful that large expiries rolling off today may keep upside limited just below the 105.00 handle.

Here’s Goldman Sachs on the commodity ‘supercycle’ ahead

A GS analyst was interviewed by S&P. highlighting oil and copper gains ahead

Main points:
  • Oil has a ‘lot of upside’, copper prices already at supercycle levels
  • Supercycle reminiscent of 1970s spike rather than 2000s bull run
  • Supply crunch could play into shale, core OPEC+ hands
Here is the piece by S&P – its a decent discussion of the fundamentals as seen through the eyes of the GS analyst.

The prospect of a new commodity ‘supercycle’ has fired some imaginations

The news JP Morgan were out with a note on a ‘supercycle’ crossed yesterday and its only accelerated since.

JPM cite higher pricees for :
  • agricultural products
  • metals
  • oil
saying that Commodities appear to have begun a new supercycle of years-long gains
JPM also says prices may also rise as an “unintended consequence” of moves to fight climate change (which might constrain oil supplies & boost demand for metals needed to build renewable energy infrastructure, batteries and electric vehicles)
Goldman Sachs and BoA are also on this, I’ll post separately on these.

China has banned the BBC from broadcasting within China

The ban of BBC World News comes in response to the BBC broadcasting its documentary about systematic rape of Uighurs in Xinjiang.

The BBC was not widely available to the population in China but could be accessed through many 5-star hotel services. It has always been subject to routine censorship in China.

NASDAQ ends at a new all-time record close

Dow industrial average and near unchanged. S&P has a modest gain

the major stock indices are ending the session with mixed results:

  • S&P index rose 6.48 points or 0.17% to 3716.35. The high reached 3925.99. The low extended to 3890.39
  • Nasdaq moved higher into the close and closed up 53.239 points or 0.3% at 14025.77. The high reached 14058.91. The low extended to 13916.84
  • Dow industrial average fell -7.5 points or -0.02% to 31430.30. The high reach 31543.82. The low extended to 31244.36
  • The Russell 2000 index rose 2.87 points or +0.13% to 2285.32.
Some winners today included:
  • Lam research, +7.46%
  • Western Digital, +5.89%
  • Micron, +5.02%
  • Rack space, +3.87%
  • Nvidia, +3.35%
  • Square, +3.27%
  • Intel, +3.06%
  • Intuit, +2.98%
  • MasterCard, +2.62%
  • Airbnb, +2.45%
  • Under armor, +2.45%
  • Visa, +2.25%
Disney reported after the close
  • revenues beat $16.25 billion vs. $15.93 billion
  • earnings-per-share also be with earnings of 0.32% vs. vs. $-0.41 estimate
  • Disney added 95 million total Disney+ new subscribers which was higher than the 90.7 billion estimate.
Disney shares are up 1.62% after the close to a new record high.
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