There is a small bent towards risk aversion in early trading and I suspect it will worsen on a report that the Oxford/AstraZeneca is not effective against preventing mild to moderate infections of the South African variant of covid-19.

A soon-to-be published study of 2026 mostly healthy and young people showed it did not appear to offer protection (update: it’s now confirmed). None were hospitalized or died but the study says it’s too early to draw any conclusions about severe cases.

Earlier reports from Johnson & Johnson and Novavax also warned their vaccines were less effective against the strain. Studies are ongoing. Another study showed the Moderna vaccine was shown to be significantly less effective against the strain and the company is working on a booster shot and a reformulated vaccine.

In terms of markets, they’ve been able to shrug vaccine setbacks off but we’re coming off the best week for US equities since November so there’s some vulnerability. Commodity currencies are slight lower in (very) early trading.