Archives of “January 5, 2021” day

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UK hits 60,000 daily covid cases for the first time

  
Analysis, COVID-19

UK nearing grim milestone

UK covid
With 66m people in the UK, we could soon be seeing one-in-1000 people being diagnosed with the virus each day.
Today’s record tally of 60,916 cases surpasses yesterday’s record of 58,784.
What especially worries me is that the weekly pattern in the UK is strong and the Mon-Wed period is generally the softest with spikes Thurs-Sat. The holidays could somehow have skewed that but I don’t see a good reason why.

OPEC agrees to raise production by 75K bpd in Feb and March

  
Analysis, Crude

Draft statement released (update: Saudis to cut “in excess” of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March)

Draft statement released (update: Saudis to cut "in excess" of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March)
The OPEC+ agreement is that Russia will be allowed to raise production by 65K bpd and Kazakhstan by 10K bpd in each month.
We don’t know yet what cut Saudi Arabia is offering but they may take on that same amount. The net would be unchanged production through March, which is a big win for the global oil market when the baseline was a 1 mbpd increase over that timeframe.
I’d warn again that number isn’t in the statement so we’ll have to wait for a separate comment from Saudi Arabia. Update: Saudis to cut “in excess” of 400,000 bpd in Feb/March, according to Reuters.
At the same time, you have to frame that against increasing lockdowns and the growing threat of further lockdowns from here.
Still, we get two months of certainty before the March meeting and that takes some headlines risk out of the oil market.
It’s make-or-break time for crude. I’m betting on a break but $50 needs to give way.

Russia agrees to rollover current OPEC production – report

  
Analysis, Crude

Oil higher on the report

Iran oil journalist Reza Zandi reports:
An informed source just told me that it appears that Russia has agreed that there won’t be any increase of 500 thousand bpd for the month of February, but, not the cessation of increase for the month of March.
If Iran can somehow enter the market in February, the situation for the month of March will be complicated
WTI is at the highs of the day, up $1.07 to $48.69.
The OPEC meeting gets back underway at the bottom of the hour.
Update: Another more-mainstream report is now saying the same thing and oil has risen further, to $49.00.

Germany to extend lockdown to month-end, further restrict movement

  
  Analysis

Germany to tighten restrictions in virus hotspots

The picture for Q1 GDP in Europe continues to deteriorate with Germany extending the lockdown to month-end and announces some tighter restrictions on movements in hotspots.
Looking at cases, the December lockdown has clearly helped but evidently not enough. Clearly, there’s a worry that the UK variant will take off.
Reports in Canada also say that Quebec will head to a full lockdown on Saturday.

EU reportedly negotiating for up to 300 million more Pfizer vaccine doses

  
  Analysis

Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the talks

Pfizer

The EU is said to be negotiating with Pfizer and BioNTech on a deal to double their supply of the coronavirus vaccine in the region, with the new contract to include 100 million doses as well as an option for 200 million more.

This comes less than a week after the bloc boosted its original order of 200 million doses to 300 million doses.
Should the new deal go through, it would bring the total doses to 600 million and enough to vaccinate roughly 2/3 of the bloc’s population (based on the two-dose regimen).
Just keep in mind though that European officials have come under intense scrutiny in recent weeks due to their handling of the vaccine rollout. So, while the news above may be encouraging, it remains to be seen how effective the execution may be.

UK announces further support for businesses to cushion blow from virus crisis

  
  Analysis

Announcement by UK finance minister, Rishi Sunak

  • One-off top up grants for retail, hospitality, businesses up to £9,000 per property
  • A £594 million discretionary fund set up to support other impacted businesses
  • New lockdown grants to total £4.6 billion
This comes after Boris Johnson announced a national lockdown in the UK over the next seven weeks starting from today, which will be reviewed on 15 February next.
The pound is still feeling the heat from all the pessimism as of late, with cable seen down slightly to 1.3555-60 levels currently. Meanwhile, EUR/GBP is up to 0.9050 as buyers threaten a push above its 100-day moving average @ 0.9034.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.37% at 27,158.63

  
  Analysis

A mixed bag in Asian trading today

Nikkei 05-01
Japanese stocks end the day lower but Asian equities are seeing a slight lift towards the closing stages today, after tracking the losses in Wall St overnight earlier.

 

The Hang Seng is up 0.4% while the Shanghai Composite is up 0.5% currently, trading closer to the highs as we approach the latter stages of the day.
Elsewhere, US futures are keeping calmer after the retreat yesterday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures seen closer to flat levels at the moment.
In the currencies space, the dollar held up somewhat after a bit of an early decline in Asia and Europe yesterday but finds itself vulnerable once again in trading today.
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