Archives of “December 2020” month

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European shares end the week on a sour note

  
Analysis, Global Indices

UK FTSE 100 near unchanged for the week. Other indices lower

The European shares are ending the week on a sour note with all the major indices lower. For the week, apart from the UK FTSE 100 which is near unchanged, the major indices all fell.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -1.37%.  This was the worst session since late October
  • France’s CAC, -0.72%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.73%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.4%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.86%
For the week:
  • German DAX, -1.39%
  • France CAC, -1.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, unchanged
  • Spain’s Ibex, -3.1%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.1%

in other markets as London/European traders look to exit:

  • spot gold is trading up $6.39 or 0.35% at 1843
  • spot silver is trading unchanged at $23.99
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $0.19 -0.41% of $46.59

UK PM Johnson: It is looking very, very likely we will have a no-deal Brexit

  
  Analysis

Comments by UK prime minister, Boris Johnson

  • Fisheries is a big problem
  • There is a way to go
  • Yet to see a big change from the EU
Essentially, the dinner meeting between Johnson and von der Leyen resulted in both sides now threatening that they are fine with letting the clock tick down and a no-deal outcome will kick into effect as such.
That might be how things transpire on Sunday but don’t rule out a return to the negotiating table before 31 December.
As for the pound, these comments won’t help going into the weekend. Cable is at the lows around 1.3170 after falling below 1.3200, with the 50.0 retracement level seen as a potential target next @ 1.3107 as well as the 100-day moving average @ 1.3089.

European stocks near one-month lows as the drop today extends further

  
Analysis, Global Indices

It is starting to get a bit ugly

The DAX has now extended its decline by more than 2% in a drop to its lowest levels in nearly a month. The Eurostoxx 600 is down by over 1.5% to its lowest level in three-weeks, with Italy’s FTSE MIB also reflecting a similar drop.

DAX
For the DAX, the recent rally seems to have met a pause as it encounters resistance from the 3 September high. There is now some support from the 13 November low at 13,004 but the 100-day moving average (red line) will be the key level to watch @ 12,877.

Japan signs final agreement with AstraZeneca for supply of 120 million doses of coronavirus vaccine

  
Analysis, COVID-19

The latest on the vaccine front

That puts Japan in good stead one there is a mass rollout of the vaccine in the future. Japan also has a deal in place with Pfizer for 120 million doses of its vaccine as well.
Getting the supply is the first step, so at least they are nearing that stage. The implementation and getting the shots to everyone though, will still take some time.

Nikkei 225 closes lower by 0.39% at 26,652.52

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Asian equities more mixed towards the end of the week

Nikkei 11-12
The Nikkei closes lower on the day, following the more tepid tone from Wall Street overnight as Asian equities traded more mixed in general today.
On the week, the Nikkei is seen down by roughly 0.4% and that reaffirms the narrative that the equities rally is taking a bit of a breather this week.
Elsewhere, the Hang Seng is up 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite is down 1.2% on the day heading into the closing stages.
US futures are keeping slightly lower even as the FDA overwhelmingly approves of the Pfizer vaccine, though the decision is expected and should already be largely baked in.
In the currencies space, the dollar is keeping weaker across the board as it remains in a vulnerable spot. That is leaving for more mixed tones ahead of European trading.

Our model points to gold at $2100/oz next year on these 3 assumptions – ANZ

  
  Analysis

Gold up $1 to $1837

Gold up $1 to $1837

ANZ Research discusses its outlook for gold over the coming year.

“Our gold valuation model suggests gold should trade around USD2,100/oz next year, assuming:

  • US inflation rises to 1.7%,
  • USD index falls to 90
  • yields on 30y bonds hold steady around 1.6%

“That said, we acknowledge headwinds in the short term. The continued strength in equity markets is likely to see further investor rotation out of gold-backed ETFs and into equities (predominately traditional growth sectors). We have subsequently cut our 0-3m target to USD1900/oz. However, we maintain our 12m target of USD2,100/oz,” ANZ adds.

FDA advisers votes 17-4 in favor of Pfizer vaccine. Approval imminent

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Panel votes on Pfizer vaccine

Panel votes on Pfizer vaccine
The vote was 17-4 with one abstention after an all day meeting. Call me crazy, but I would like to hear from the four people who voted against it.
The vote is for an emergency use authorization. Expect the US to approve the vaccine immediately, or tomorrow at the latest. Vaccinations will begin on the weekend or Monday depending on CDC approving protocols for who gets it first (the elderly and long-term care workers).
Some market participants see the approval as a risk-positive step but it should be wholly priced in. At the same time, I don’t see any kind of sell-the-fact trade here either.
The next candidate to go through this process will be from Moderna and that goes before the FDA committee on Dec 17.
Update: There’s some talk that the the ‘no’ voters might have been about 16-17 year olds and safety for them. The question was if the vaccine was safe for those 16 and older. The dissents might have been about those two years, which is not a big deal.

US stocks end the session with mixed results. NASDAQ rebounds

  
Analysis, US Market

S&P and Dow industrial average fall

The US stocks end the session with mixed results. The NASDAQ index rebounded a portion of its sharp -1.94% decline from yesterday. The S&P index in the down industrial average each closed lower for the 2nd consecutive day.

  • The S&P and Dow are on pace for the 1st weekly loss in 3 weeks
  • Each of the indices are pace for a weekly loss
  • NASDAQ on pace for its 1st weekly loss in 4 weeks.
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -4.72 points or -0.13% to 3668.10
  • Nasdaq is closing up 66.85 points or 0.54% to 12405.80
  • Dow fell -69.55 points or -0.23% to 29999.26 (just below the 30K level).
The big story for the day is the 2nd consecutive monster IPO. Today Airbnb was priced at $60 a share and open that $146 a share.  It is closing $144.11 after trading to a intraday session high of $165 a share. The gain from the IPO price is 111.93%.
Other winners today included:
  • Twitter, +8.41%
  • Crowdstrike +8.35%
  • Alcoa, +5.72%
  • Square, +4.93%
  • American Airlines, +4.78%
  • Exxon Mobil, +4.10%
  • Tesla, +3.79%
  • United Airlines, +3.37%
  • chewy, +3.29%
  • Zoom, +3.27%
  • Chevron, +3.23%
  • Nio, +2.86%
  • Citigroup, +2.61%
  • Southwest Airlines +2.25%
Some losers today included:
  • General Motors, -3.51%
  • Ford -3.49%
  • AT&T -2.45%
  • Corsair, -2.68%
  • General Dynamics, -2.41%
  • Deutsche Bank -1.96%
  • Doordash, -1.8%
  • CVS -1.8%
  • Northrop Grumman, -1.73%
  • Lockheed Martin, -1.64%
  • Broadcom, -1.61%
  • Verizon -1.55%
  • DuPont, -1.51%
  • FedEx, -1.5%
  • IBM, -1.44%
  • Adobe, -1.4%
  • United health -1.3%
  • Corning -1.33%
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