December 5, 2020 - Financial Occultist

Bank of Canada and ECB rate decisions. US inflation data

Next week is a relatively quiet week from an event and major economic releases standpoint. Of course Brexit negotiations have the potential to jolt the market. Interest rate decision that of Canada and the ECB will be eyed for changes of sentiment.

Monday, December 7

RBA Gov. Lowe scheduled to speak at 5 PM ET SUNDAY/2200 GMT Sunday
Canada Ivey PMI, 10 AM ET/1500 GMT

Tuesday, December 8

Japan GDP, 6:50 PM ET on Monday/2350 GMT
Swiss unemployment rate, 1:45 AM ET/0645 GMT. Estimate 3.4% vs. 3.3% last month
EU revised GDP for 3Q, 5 AM ET/1000 GMT. Estimate.6%
EU ZEW economic sentiment index. 5 AM ET/1000 GMT. Estimate 37.5 vs. 32.8 last month
German ZEW economic sentiment index. 5 AM ET/1000 GMT. 45.2 vs. 39.0 last month
US nonfarm productivity. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT. Estimate for .9%

Wednesday, December 9

Bank of Canada rate decision, 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. Overnight rate expected to remain unchanged at 0.25%

Thursday, December 10

ECB rate decision, 7:45 AM ET/1245 GMT. No rate change expected
US CPI data for the month of October. 8:30 AM ET/1330 GMT

Friday, December 11

BOE financial stability report, 2 AM ET/0700 GMT
US PPI data for the month of October
US University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary, 10 AM ET/1500 GMT. Estimate 76.1 vs. 76.9 last month

The US treasury well auction off $56 billion of 3 year notes on Tuesday, $30,000,000,000.10 year notes on Wednesday, and $24 billion of 30 year bonds on Thursday.

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CFTC commitments of traders: EUR longs remain the largest speculative trader position

05-Dec-20 05:29 am

Anirudh Sethi

Weekly FX positioning data for the week ending December 1, 2020

EUR long 140K vs 138K long last week. Longs increased by 2K
GBP short 8K vs 17K short last week. Shorts trimmed by 9K
JPY long 48K vs 40K long last week. Longs increased by 8K
CHF long 15K vs 15K long last week. Unchanged
AUD short 11K vs 5K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K
NZD long 9K vs 8K long last week. Longs increased by 1K
CAD short 21k vs 17K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
Prior report

Highlights:

EUR longs remain as the largest speculative position (the EURUSD reached the highest level since April 2018 this week
JPY longs are the next largest position at 48K.
The largest short position in the CAD. Traders are on the wrong side of that trade with the loonie ticking below the October 2018 low at 1.27819 today after a stronger jobs report. The 5th straight week of crude oil price gains has also benefited the CAD
Shorts in AUD, GBP are also the wrong direction as both traded to multi year highs this week.

US major indices close at record highs led by the S&P index

05-Dec-20 05:19 am

Anirudh Sethi

Major indices close near highs

All 3 major indices close at record highs today.

The Dow and S&P close higher for the 2nd consecutive week
The NASDAQ close higher for the 3rd consecutive week
The S&P index outperformed the Dow and Nasdaq although all closed near session highs.

The final numbers are showing:

S&P index rose 32.4 points or 0.88% to 3699.12
NASDAQ index rose 87.05 points or 0.7% to 12,464.23
Dow rose 248.74 points or 0.83% to 30,218.26

For the week, the

NASDAQ index led the way with a 2.12% gain.
The S&P rose by 1.67% and
The Dow industrial average rose by 1.03%.

Energy, banks and technology led the charge this week. Energy was up around 4% while banks and technology increased by 3%.

Looking at the major global indices, the UK FTSE 100 led the winners with a 2.87% gain. Italy’s FTSE MIB and the German DAX were the laggards for the week. The FTSE MIB fell by -0.70% while the German DAX fell by -0.28%.