Archives of “November 2020” month

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CFTC commitments of traders: The EUR position is cut again

  
Analysis, Forex

Forex futures positioning for the week ending November 3, 2020.

  • EUR long 140K vs 156K long last week. Longs trimmed by 15K
  • GBP short 11K vs 7K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K
  • JPY long 28K vs 18K long last week. Longs increased by 10K
  • CHF long 15K vs 15K long last week. No change in net position
  • AUD short 1K vs 9K long last week. Shorts increased by 10K
  • NZD long 7K vs 7K long last week. No change in net position
  • CAD short 21k vs 18K short last week. Shorts increased by 3K

The EUR long position continues to be trimmed from the high on September 1 week at 212K (was an all time high position as well).  It currently is at long 140K.  The position has been trimmed for the last 6 weeks.  However, it still remains the largest position by far (the next is the JPY at long 28K).

Other highlights:
  • AUD this went from long to short but only by 1K
  • The CHF and NZD positions remained largely unchanged
  • The  JPY is the next largest position at 28K.
  • The largest short position is the CAD at short 21K.
Forex futures positioning for the week ending November 3, 2020.

Stocks closed little changed. Stocks enjoy the best week since April

  
Analysis, US Market

NASDAQ closes up 9% for the week

The major indices are closing little changed.

  • The NASDAQ index closed marginally higher for the 5th consecutive day
  • the S&P index fell marginally snapping a 4 day winning streak
  • the Dow industrial average also fell snapping its 4 day winning streak
  • major indices have their best week since April
  • NASDAQ winning streak is the longest since August
A look at the final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index, -0.98 points or -0.03% at 3509.47. The high price reached 3521.58. The low price extended to 3484.34
  • NASDAQ index rose 4.3 points or 0.04% at 11895.23. The high price reached 11920.54. The low price extended to 11737.13
  • Dow industrial average fell 66.78 points or -0.24% at 28323.46. The high price reached 28431.96. The low price extended to 28189.50
For the week:
  • S&P index rose 7.32%
  • NASDAQ index rose 9.01%
  • Dow industrial average rose 6.87% despite today’s decline

European shares snap a 4-day win streak

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Strong gains this week for the major indices.

The European equity markets are closing for the week. The major indices are ending lower snapping a 4 day win streak. Nevertheless the gains for the week are strong.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.7%
  • France’s CAC, -0.6%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, flat
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.2%
For the week, provisional closes are showing;
  • German DAX, +8%
  • France’s CAC, +7.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +5.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +6.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +9.7%.
In other markets as European/London traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is trading up $2.40 or 0.12% at $1952.11
  • spot silver is up $0.11 or 0.46% $25.48
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.22 at -3.15% at $37.57.
  • Bitcoin is off the high level of $15,966.49. It currently trades at $15,514.30
In the US stock market, the S&P index has moved back into the black marginally:
  • S&P index up 0.37 points or 0.01% of 3511
  • NASDAQ index is down 13 points or -0.11% 11878.00
  • Dow industrial average is down 13 points or -0.05% of 28377

In the US debt market, yields are higher with the yield curve steepening:

  • 2 year 0.152%, 0.8 basis points
  • 5 year 0.367%, +4.41 basis point
  • 10 year 0.825%, +6.2 basis points
  • 30 year 1.602%, +7.8 basis points

In the European debt market, yields are mostly higher with the exception of Italy whose 10 year benchmark yield is down -2.2 basis points:

Strong gains this week for the major indices.

Trump to admit defeat after advice from advisers – Fox

  
Analysis, Politics

That’s an unexpected turn

Trump exit
Fox New sources say Trump will admit defeat after receiving advice from his advisors.
That would be a big surprise and remove many of the tail risks around the transition. It’s bullish for risk trades and this report is sparking a big bid in equity futures, which have now gone positive.
This is one of the things that’s hard to believe until it happens, especially after Trump’s rant last night. I expected him to never concede.
Here is a separate report on the mood:
Tweet

(more…)

Germany Ifo: Industrial production expectations have weakened somewhat for the coming months

  
Analysis, Economy

That is to be expected given the resurgence of the virus in Europe

Not to mention the tighter restrictions being introduced by many countries across the region to deal with the second wave of the pandemic.
If anything, this just summarises that the September industrial production release at 0700 GMT will be of little importance as it is very much a lagging data point at this stage.
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