Archives of “November 2020” month

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Germany RKI chief warns that coronavirus deaths will rise across the country

  
Analysis, COVID-19

Remarks by Germany RKI chief, Lothar Wieler

  • Expects uncontrolled spread of infections in some parts of Germany
  • Number of infections are rising practically in all parts of the country
  • Still possible to flatten the curve by following distancing rules
The daily reports have already reflected such a trend as his headline remark, with the 261 deaths reported yesterday being the highest since April.
Healthcare capacity is also facing some pressure with coronavirus patients requiring intensive care having exceeded 3,000 this week – pretty much doubling every two weeks at the current pace. And that isn’t a good sign in trying to reduce the mortality rate.

IEA sees no major oil demand boost from vaccine breakthrough in 1H 2021

  
Analysis, Crude

IEA cuts its forecasts for global oil demand amid new lockdown measures

Oil
The agency cautions that a vaccine breakthrough won’t quickly revive markets and fuel use won’t experience any “significant” boost from vaccines until 2H 2021 at least.
In its latest report on the oil market, the agency is also cutting its oil-demand projections for Q4 2020 by 1.2 mil bpd and says that unless the fundamentals change, the task of re-balancing will make slow progress.
Adding that if OPEC+ producers proceed with a scheduled increase of almost 2 mil bpd in January, then there will be a failure to deplete global oil inventories in Q1 2021.

 

The agency also notes that available data for Q3 now suggests that inventories only fell by barely a third of the expected amount, down by about 800k bpd.

Nikkei 225 closes higher by 0.68% at 25,520.88

  
Analysis, Global Indices

No stopping the run in the Nikkei so far

Nikkei 12-11
They say that the trend is your friend and the Nikkei is proving that to be the case as Japanese stocks continue to climb upon a break to its highest levels since 1991 this week.
However, that belies the mood elsewhere with AxJ equities showing signs of exhaustion as the Hang Seng is down 0.3% while the Shanghai Composite is down 0.2%.
Meanwhile, US futures are also seen lower with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% with Nasdaq futures seen a little lower by 0.2% as we look towards European trading.
The market feels like it is still trying to figure out whether we are in need for a deeper correction after the manic start to the week or if this is all just a short breather. But either way, there is some element of push and pull taking place for now.

Germany reports 21,866 new coronavirus cases in latest update today

  
Analysis, COVID-19

The second-highest daily count on record for Germany

Germany
This shows that the virus situation isn’t quite abating just yet, but the figure it at least not growing exponentially as it has been doing in October.
There are now roughly ~240,000 active cases across the country.

 

The number of deaths is keeping on the high side as well, with another 215 deaths reported – following the 261 deaths yesterday, which was the highest since April – and that brings the total tally on that front to 11,982 persons.
It looks like it will still take some time before the virus trajectory turns the corner, and the hope for German officials is that it will be some time in the next week or two at least.

Financial conditions in China are tightening (albeit slowly)

  
  Analysis

There have been signs from the People’s Bank of China they are seeking to scale back on their stimulus policies.

Indeed, some officials from the PBOC have been bluntly saying as much, this from the weekend (I posted on it Monday) – vice governor of the  People’s Bank of China Liu Guoqiang:
  • exit from loose monetary policy is a ‘matter of time’
  • Policy makers globally are discussing the timing of stimulus withdrawal, and the consensus is that it should be done sooner rather than later
  • “Exit is a matter of time and it is also necessary,” he said. “But the timing and method of exit need to be carefully evaluated, mainly based on the status of economic recovery.”
Today:
  • overnight repo rate climbed to 2.53%, highest since mid-January
  • 7-day rate rose for a sixth session

US election – no sign of fraud in Georgia vote

  
Analysis, Politics

Comments from the Secretary of State for Georgia Brad Raffensperger in an interview (CNN):

 

  • says there is no sign of widespread fraud in Georgia vote
  • believe ballots were counted accurately in Georgia

 

The state of Georgia was a key pick up for President-elect Biden’s win in the presidential election and, conversely, a surprising loss for Trump in his overall loss of the election. Georgia had not been won by a Democrat presidential candidate since Bill Clinton’s days.

Map via BBC:

Comments from the Secretary of State for Georgia Brad Raffensperger in an interview (CNN):  

Saudi’s Salman says has, and is still, working to guarantee stability of oil supplies

  
  Analysis

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman says Saudi has and is still working to guarantee stability of oil supplies to the world in a way that equally serves producers and consumers despite Covid-19 impact on global oil markets

  • says kingdom managed to minimise impact of covid-19 on economy and health sector – statement
  • says chairmanship of G20 in 2020’s exceptional circumstances is opportunity to lead efforts  on fixing global economic system
  • says region  facing several attempts from regional powers to spread extremist ideologies
  • stresses the danger of Iran’s regional project in supporting terrorism, extremism and sectarianism – statement

NASDAQ index rebounds 2% and closes near the highs

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow industrial average closes lower for the 1st time this week

The NASDAQ index led the charge today the gain over 2%.

  • As it closes near session highs
  • NASDAQ snapped today slide
  • Dow industrial average snaps 2-day rise
  • NASDAQ closes higher for the 1st time in 3 days. The pair fell -1.53% on Monday, and -1.37% yesterday
  • S&P closed higher for the 2nd time in 3 days
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index +27.14 points or 0.77% at 3572.66
  • NASDAQ index closed up 232.57 points or 2.01% at 11786.43
  • Dow industrial average closed down 23.29 points or -0.08% at 29397.63.
In the European markets today, the major indices all close higher for the 3rd consecutive day. The gains were led by the Portuguese PSI 20 and the UK FTSE 100 (+1.35%).
Dow industrial average closes lower for the 1st time this week_Some big winners today included:
  • Zoom +9.87%
  • Chewy, +6.73%
  • Square, +6.66%
  • Crowdstrike, +6.06%
  • Qualcomm, +5.47%
  • Nvidia, +5.2%
  • Papa John’s, +4.95%
  • PayPal, +4.9%
  • Chipotle, +4.86%
  • Slack, +4.48%
  • AMD, +4.22%
  • Broadcom, +3.56%
Some losers today included him him:
  • Delta Air Lines, -5.43%
  • American Airlines -4.15%
  • United Airlines -3.87%
  • Southwest Airlines -3.53%
  • Boeing -3.42%
  • Emerson -3.28%
  • Raytheon technologies, -3.0%
  • Walt Disney, -3.0%
  • American Airlines, -2.71%
  • Stryker, -2.29%
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