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EUR/USD: Likely to spend 2021 in a 1.20-1.30 range – SocGen

  
Analysis, Forex

EUR/USD up 24 pips to 1.1865

EUR/USD up 24 pips to 1.1865

Societe Generale discusses its outlook for EUR/USD for the coming year.

“Relative real rates started to turn less negative for the EUR/USD in 2019, but the Fed has accelerated that development with its dramatic policy moves this year,” SocGen notes.

“That should take EUR/USD into a 1.20-1.30 range during 2021, and eventually to a 1.25-1.35 range centred on where we see fair value – though fair value for EUR/USD will be predicated on the dollar losing ground against a lot more currencies than just the euro, and may have to wait for a broad-based rally in EMFX, which isn’t something we see happening just yet,” SocGen adds.

Here are the latest SocGen FX forecasts, note the escalation in cable as well:

SocGen FX forecasts

European Commission announces vaccine-supply deal with Moderna

  
  Analysis

The contract will see Moderna supply up to 160 million doses of its coronavirus vaccine to the EU

Meanwhile, Reuters is also reporting that Italy is to get 16 million shots of AstraZeneca’s coronvirus vaccine some time in early 2021. I reckon the combination of the news is helping to keep the push higher in BTPs, as 10-year yields hit a record low of 0.604%.

For some context of the size of that deal, Italy’s adult population is estimated to be somewhere around 60 million people.

Russia says too early to comment on its position in OPEC+ talks

  
Analysis, Crude

Says Putin has no plans yet to talk to Saudi Arabia on OPEC+ deal

OPEC
You can always count on OPEC+ to leave things until the last minute and try and piece everything together on the day when they meet.
There’s going to be a few technical meetings this week between members to get a feel on what the mood music is, before we proceed to the ministerial meetings on 30 November and 1 December next week.

 

For now though, oil is in a good spot as it has been riding on vaccine optimism as well in the past two weeks with WTI crude up another 1% today to $43.50.
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