Archives of “November 25, 2020” day

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Maradona dead at 60

  
  Analysis

The sporting legend is dead at 60

Maradona
Argentina’s Clarin reports that football legend Diego Armando Maradona is dead at the age of 60.
The report says he died this morning at a house in the in the Buenos Aires where he had been recuperating from an Oct 30 operation. He had brain surgery for a subdural hematoma and was released Nov 11.
Maradona was initially admitted a clinic with signs of depression, anemia and dehydration, before being moved when the accumulation of blood between a membrane and his brain was discovered. Maradona was born in 1960 to a poor family in Buenos Aires and long suffered substance abuse problems but he was undoubtedly one of the greatest football players of all time, leading his country to the 1986 World Cup.

Biden to announce key members of economic team next week

  
  Analysis

Biden transitional team reporting

The Biden transitional team is reporting that the president elect will announce key members of his economic team next week.  They also announced that they have been briefed on operation warp speed and Covid response, and are expected to receive 1st residential daily intelligence briefing on Monday.

In other news from Washington, Pres. Trump has canceled a trip to Pennsylvania as campaign member tests positive for Covid. This according to CNN. HMMMM.

US weekly oil inventories -754K vs +225K expected

  
Analysis, Crude

Weekly oil inventory data from the EIA

  • Prior was +769K
  • Gasoline +2180K vs +1150K exp
  • Distillates -1441K vs -2250K
  • Refinery utilization +1.3% vs +0.7% exp
API numbers from late yesterday:
  • Crude +3800K
  • Gasoline +1300K
  • Distillates -1800K
  • Cushing -1400K
This is a larger surprise than it appears because there was some oil selling on the API report. The build in gasoline takes the shine off it and distilltes are also negative so the market isn’t doing much. If anything, crude has ticked slightly lower since the headlines.
WTI oil chart

Equities in a more tepid mood so far on the session

  
Analysis, Global Indices

Not much hints of follow through buying in trading today yet

European indices have pared earlier gains at the open to sit a little lower for the most part, with US futures also easing slightly on the session. S&P 500 futures are back at flat levels while Nasdaq futures are keeping mild gains of around 0.2%.

DAX

E-minis 25-11
The bond market isn’t really offering much either, with 10-year Treasury yields little changed at 0.872% currently. Put that together, that is leaving FX little to work with in European morning trade so far.
EUR/USD rose to its highest levels since 1 September to 1.1930 but has pared that advance to 1.1900 again. GBP/USD also bounced from 1.3340 to 1.3385 before erasing the entire move during the past few hours.
The dollar continues to keep in a mixed spot for the most part and we are likely to be trapped in this push and pull until North American traders step in for one last round ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday starting from tomorrow.

IEA’s Birol: We do not see a structural decline in oil demand

  
Analysis, Crude

Says China oil demand this year will even be slightly higher than 2019

The good news for oil traders is that the latest bout of lockdown fear didn’t lead to any massive decline in prices as key support held up. But amid the risk rally, oil is also feeding off the positive spillovers to climb to its highest levels since March:
Oil W1 25-11

The 100-week moving average @ $48.42 is the next key technical target.

Economic data coming up in the European session

  
  Analysis

Little on the agenda in Europe today

Virus
However, the day will still be filled with plenty of US data later as we will see a bit of a rush before the Thanksgiving holiday kicks in tomorrow.
As a reminder to that, this is very much a holiday-shortened week with US markets set to be closed tomorrow and will close early i.e. half-day on Friday. But in all likelihood, most traders and investors will already be off after today until next week.
Anyway, risk assets continued to surge in trading yesterday with US equities establishing further upside momentum as we see the S&P 500 and Dow close at record highs. The latter even broke 30,000 for the first time and stuck with a close just above that.

 

Meanwhile, oil broke above its August highs to its highest levels since March as price climbs above $45 into trading today.
Elsewhere, the dollar and yen are staying pressured ahead of what will arguably be the ‘real’ final trading day of the week. EUR/USD is looking to try and push above 1.1900 still while the antipodeans are looking to break higher against the dollar.
AUD/USD is up to its highest levels since the start of September, holding above short-term resistance seen @ 0.7340. Meanwhile, NZD/USD has broken to its highest levels since June 2018 and is flirting with a test of 0.7000 since yesterday.
As for the key risk barometer i.e. AUD/JPY, the pair is still sitting just below 77.00 but is continuing to challenge the resistance region around 76.70-00 currently.
Looking ahead, it will be quiet in European trading but expect the focus to remain on the risk push/appetite and potential for Brexit headlines ahead of the weekend.
0900 GMT – Switzerland November Credit Suisse investor sentiment
Prior release can be found here. The reading measures analysts’ expectations on the Swiss economy and other economic expectations over the next 6 months.
1200 GMT – US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 20 November
Weekly US housing data, measures the change in number of applications for mortgages backed by the MBA during the week. The focus will once again be on purchases as that has been one of the more bullish spots outlining that US economic conditions are not as dire as first suggested by the recent dip due to the coronavirus impact.
That’s all for the session ahead. I wish you all the best of days to come and good luck with your trading! Stay safe out there.

Japan’s Monex says a BOJ digital currency will boost cryptocurrency trading

  
  Analysis

Reuters reporting on comments from the head of Japan’s Monex Group

(Monex has a large online brokerage presence in Japan via a subsidiary.  It is also an owner of Coincheck, a bitcoin exchange operator based in Tokyo.)
  • Central bank digital currencies will help boost trading of cryptocurrencies
  • by providing a more convenient platform for converting cryptocurrencies into legal tenders
“CBDCs will significantly enhance the interoperability of cryptocurrencies”
  • “It would make the cryptocurrency market more lively.”
  • If CBDCs are issued, they would offer a digital-friendly platform where CBDCs, cryptocurrencies and legal tenders could be converted to one another more smoothly
—
The background to this is the BOJ and other central banks moving to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC),
The BOJ has said as recently as October it would begin experimenting next year on how to operate its own digital currency, joining efforts by other central banks to catch up to rapid private sector innovation.
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