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European shares snap a 4-day win streak

Strong gains this week for the major indices.

The European equity markets are closing for the week. The major indices are ending lower snapping a 4 day win streak. Nevertheless the gains for the week are strong.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.7%
  • France’s CAC, -0.6%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, flat
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.8%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.2%
For the week, provisional closes are showing;
  • German DAX, +8%
  • France’s CAC, +7.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +5.9%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +6.5%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +9.7%.
In other markets as European/London traders look to exit:
  • spot gold is trading up $2.40 or 0.12% at $1952.11
  • spot silver is up $0.11 or 0.46% $25.48
  • WTI crude oil futures are trading down $1.22 at -3.15% at $37.57.
  • Bitcoin is off the high level of $15,966.49. It currently trades at $15,514.30
In the US stock market, the S&P index has moved back into the black marginally:
  • S&P index up 0.37 points or 0.01% of 3511
  • NASDAQ index is down 13 points or -0.11% 11878.00
  • Dow industrial average is down 13 points or -0.05% of 28377

In the US debt market, yields are higher with the yield curve steepening:

  • 2 year 0.152%, 0.8 basis points
  • 5 year 0.367%, +4.41 basis point
  • 10 year 0.825%, +6.2 basis points
  • 30 year 1.602%, +7.8 basis points

In the European debt market, yields are mostly higher with the exception of Italy whose 10 year benchmark yield is down -2.2 basis points:

Strong gains this week for the major indices.

Trump to admit defeat after advice from advisers – Fox

That’s an unexpected turn

Trump exit
Fox New sources say Trump will admit defeat after receiving advice from his advisors.
That would be a big surprise and remove many of the tail risks around the transition. It’s bullish for risk trades and this report is sparking a big bid in equity futures, which have now gone positive.
This is one of the things that’s hard to believe until it happens, especially after Trump’s rant last night. I expected him to never concede.
Here is a separate report on the mood:
Tweet

(more…)

Germany Ifo: Industrial production expectations have weakened somewhat for the coming months

That is to be expected given the resurgence of the virus in Europe

Not to mention the tighter restrictions being introduced by many countries across the region to deal with the second wave of the pandemic.
If anything, this just summarises that the September industrial production release at 0700 GMT will be of little importance as it is very much a lagging data point at this stage.

Trump speaking – nothing of substance

US freshly confirmed coronavirus cases were above 100,000 again today. And over 1,000 Americans died. So far Trump has not addressed the health disaster.

The focus is on the election in the press conference.
  • claiming he has won
  • whines the election has been stolen from him
  • claims fake media polls
  • mail in ballots are corrupt
The usual b/s from this guy.
OK, back to reality.
Vote counting results continue to come in.  Georgia is firming for Biden,
the Trump lead is now only just above3,600
and his Arizona lead is holding. Pennsylvania vote counts are coming in strongly in favour of Biden.
With any luck this could be declared tonight and we can get on with things.

Trump’s legal case to stop counting in Pennsylvania is not going well

Trump’s lawyers are arguing to stop counting “any ballots so long as Republican observers are not present”.

Trump’s lawyers have freely admitted that observers representing Trump are indeed observing the counting.
Judge Paul Diamond
  • “I’m asking you as a member of the bar of this court: are people representing the Donald J Trump for president, representing the plaintiffs, in that room?”

Trump campaign lawyer:

  • “Yes.”
Diamond:
  • “I’m sorry, then what’s your problem?”
Not the sharpest tools in the shed are they?

(Info via an FT reporter)

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