The Bank of Japan October 2020 meeting has concluded
The Bank has downgraded their view on fiscal year 2020 economic growth, also for the CPI
Main points:
- maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%
- maintains 10-year jgb yield target around 0%
- decision on yield curve control made by 8-1 vote
- board member Kataoka opposes decision on yield curve control
Quarterly report:
- Japan’s economy likely to improve as a trend
- consumer prices to fall for time being
- consumer prices to turn positive as economy improves, gradually accelerate pace of increase
- there is extremely high uncertainty over economic, price outlook
- risks to Japan’s economic, price outlook skewed to downside
- medium-, long-term inflation expectations to hover on a weak note, but resume uptrend as prices gradually rise
- Japan’s financial intermediation may stagnate if financial institutions’ profits come under prolonged pressure from covid-19
- BOJ will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with eye on impact of covid-19 on economy
Forecasts:
Real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at -5.5% vs -4.7% in July
- real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +3.6% vs +3.3% in July
- real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2022/23 at +1.6% vs +1.5% in July
Core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at -0.6% vs -0.5% in July
- core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +0.4% vs +0.3% in July
- core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2022/23 at +0.7% vs +0.7% in July
Headlines via Reuters
Full text:
- Statement on Monetary Policy
- Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2020, The Bank’s View)
If you would prefer a ‘picture speaks 1000 words’ summary of the BOJ outlook:
