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BOJ announce no change to monetary policy

The Bank of Japan October 2020 meeting has concluded

The Bank has downgraded their view on fiscal year 2020 economic growth, also for the CPI
Main points:
  • maintains short-term interest rate target at -0.1%
  • maintains 10-year jgb yield target around 0%
  • decision on yield curve control made by 8-1 vote
  • board member Kataoka opposes decision on yield curve control

Quarterly report:

 

  • Japan’s economy likely to improve as a trend
  • consumer prices to fall for time being
  • consumer prices to turn positive as economy improves, gradually accelerate pace of increase
  • there is extremely high uncertainty over economic, price outlook
  • risks to Japan’s economic, price outlook skewed to downside
  • medium-, long-term inflation expectations to hover on a weak note, but resume uptrend as prices gradually rise
  • Japan’s financial intermediation may stagnate if financial institutions’ profits come under prolonged pressure from covid-19
  • BOJ will take additional easing steps without hesitation as needed with eye on impact of covid-19 on economy

 

Forecasts:

Real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at -5.5% vs -4.7% in July

 

 

  • real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +3.6% vs +3.3% in July
  • real gdp median forecast for fiscal 2022/23 at +1.6% vs +1.5% in July

 

Core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2020/21 at -0.6% vs -0.5% in July

 

  • core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2021/22 at +0.4% vs +0.3% in July
  •  core cpi median forecast for fiscal 2022/23 at +0.7% vs +0.7% in July

 

Headlines via Reuters

Full text:

 

 

 

If you would prefer a ‘picture speaks 1000 words’ summary of the BOJ outlook:

Fauci on the news wires – sees a whole lot of pain if COVID-19 trends do not change

Dr Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in the US, in an interview with CNBC

  • sees a whole lot of pain if covid trends don’t change
  • mask-wearing, distancing would have a big impact
  • very little appetite
  • for lockdown in US
  • changes need to be made to combat in US
  • doubtful White House will mandate national mask-wearing

Major indices plunge on Covid/election fear. Close near session lows

Big day today on the earnings front

The major indices fell sharply on Covid/election fears. European countries imposed new restrictions. Case count continue to rise putting pressure on hospitals. A lack of a coronavirus stimulus deal in the US is also weighing. Finally, uncertainty about the upcoming election is also frightened traders. The volatility index (Vix index )rose by 19.31% to close to 40.

Some of the highlights in the numbers today
  • Dow closes down for the 4th consecutive day
  • Dow has the longest losing streak since February
  • Dow closes at the lowest level since July 31
  • Dow closed below its 100 day moving average at 27250.30. Approaches its 200 day moving average at 26226.46
  • S&P has a 3 day losing streak
  • S&P sees all 11 sectors moved to the downside
  • S&P index closed below its 100 day moving average at 3306.05
  • NASDAQ index closed below its 50 day moving average at 11313.65, but above its 100 day moving average at 10870.86
The final numbers are showing:
  • S&P index fell -119.51 points or -3.52% to 3271.17.
  • The NASDAQ index fell by -426.48 points or -3.73% to 11004.86.
  • Dow industrial average fell minus hundred 42.18 points or -3.43% to 26520.74
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