Archives of “September 2020” month

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OK, so ‘Suganomics’ is now a thing. Analyst says it means lower USD/JPY for longer.

  
Analysis, Economy

New Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga has inherited Abenomics but its apparently being renmaed out there.

In early comments Suga has stressed deregulation will play a bigger role though. Let’s see how he goes with that ….
Analysis from SMBC Nikki in Tokyo suggest that the initial impact of economic deregulation will be deflationary and so push up the real interest rates in the short term. Thus will be a supportive factor for the yen and keep it under 105.
Huh. It may mean less yen heading offshore from Japan but I can’t see it necessarily prompts inflows to the country. Not buying that ‘stays below 105’ argument sorry.

Coronavirus – UK scientific advisers to government are recommending a second national lockdown

  
  Analysis

The groups advising the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government recommend another two weeks national lockdown.

In October.
The government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage)
  • and the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-m)
Via the FT, link (may be gated)
As recently as yesterday UK PM Johnson said again he wanted to avoid national lockdown (limiting restrictions to areas experiencing worsening outbreaks). Sky reports that Lancashire may be next on the block for tighter restrictions.
The groups advising the UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government recommend another two weeks national lockdown.

US Stocks lower but off worst levels at the close

  
Analysis, US Market

Dow snaps 4 day win streak

The major US stock indices closed down on the day, but it could have been worse. Then again in could have been better too.   The major indices are closing near today’s the middle of the days trading ranges.
The Dow industrial average was the relative best performer. In fact at 1 point today it traded positively with a 24.4 point gain. However that was quickly rejected the price rotated back into the negative. The NASDAQ index was the weakest. Both it, and the S&P closed lower for the 2nd straight day.
The final numbers are showing:
  • The S&P index closed down -28.48 points or -0.84% at 3357.01
  • the NASDAQ index closed down -140.19 points or -1.27% at 10910.27
  • the Dow industrial average fell -130.40 points or -0.47% at 27901.98.

Below is a look at the ranges and percentage changes for the major indices in the North America and Europe. All the major indices close negative on the day. The NASDAQ index was the worst performer at -1.27%.

Dow snaps 4 day win streak

US cases rise to 41,464, up from 34,240 yesterday

  
  Analysis

Deaths and cases move higher in the US

The CDC is reporting the Covid case numbers for the day:

  • cases rise by 41,464 vs. 34,240 yesterday
  • total deaths increased by 1224 vs. 961 reported yesterday.
  • Total deaths from the CDC now equal 196,277
  • total cases over the last 7 days has increased by 269,769.
Many expect the total cases (and deaths) to rise over the next few weeks due to the Labor Day holiday.
Kids going back to school and the opening of football seasons in college and pro where some teams are allowing up to 20,000 fans, have the potential to increase Covid cases.

Saudi energy minister: Warns oil speculators not to bet against OPEC

  
Analysis, Crude

More OPEC news

The Saudi energy minister is now speaking saying:
  • UAE has shown its commitment to OPEC+cuts
  • Warns oil speculators not to bet against OPEC.
  • Exports to evolve as local consumption drops
  • We don’t have to wait until December, we will be proactive

Meanwhile the UAE energy minister is now speaking and says:

  • Reaffirmed the full support, commitment to OPEC+ deal
  • Output increase in August was due to domestic demand
  • Tremendous increase in electricity demand in August
  • Will compensate oil output in October and November
  • Won’t pump above OPEC+ target this month
  • To meet 100% of its OPEC+ quota in September

European major indices close lower but off low levels for the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices

German DAX, -0.2%. UK’s FTSE 100, -0.3%. France’s CAC, -0.5%

The major European indices are closing lower, but well off there lowest levels for the day.

The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.2%. The index was down -1.66% at the lows.
  • France’s CAC, -0.5%. It fell to a low of -1.55%.
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.3%. It’s low reached -1.31%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.3%. It’s low reached -1.36%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -1%. It’s low reached -1.67%.
In the benchmark 10 year note sector, the UK’s yield fell the most at -2.6 basis points. Spain yields in stop by 0.3% with the other countries in between those 2 extremes.

Some Covid statistics for the day in Europe and US

  
  Analysis

UK, Italy, Florida, New York

Some Covid statistics for the day from the US and Europe

  • Florida cases up 3255 vs. 2355 yesterday. Deaths dipped to 147 from 154 yesterday
  • New York cases 896 vs. 652 yesterday. Deaths come in at 3 vs. 4 yesterday. Hospitalizations are at 486 vs. 483 yesterday
  • UK cases 3395 vs. 3991 yesterday. Deaths 21 vs. 20 yesterday
  • Italy cases 1585 vs. 1452 yesterday
In France their health minister said that the number of people in the highest use with Covid is increasing at a worrying rate.
Officials in the US are worried about a spike after the Labor Day holiday when social distancing was relaxed.
In my home state of Arizona cases rose to 1753 vs. 698 yesterday. Deaths also rose from 27 to 38. The case count is the largest since August 1.
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