rss

FOMC statement says it would be prepared to adjust if risks emerge that would impede goals

Highlights of the September 16, 2020 FOMC statement:

  • Statement adopts nod to average inflation target
  • Fed funds rate held in 0.00-0.25% range, as expected
  • Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months
  • Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year
  • Repeats that virus poses ‘ considerable risks’ over the medium term

The FOMC statement from the September 2020

The full statement from the FOMC September 2020 meeting

The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals.

The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year. Weaker demand and significantly lower oil prices are holding down consumer price inflation. Overall financial conditions have improved in recent months, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

The path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. The ongoing public health crisis will continue to weigh on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term, and poses considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved. The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee’s assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time. In addition, over coming months the Federal Reserve will increase its holdings of Treasury securities and agency mortgage-backed securities at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning and help foster accommodative financial conditions, thereby supporting the flow of credit to households and businesses. (more…)

European shares end with mixed results

German DAX up marginally. France’s CAC flat.

The European major stock indices are close for the day. The results are mixed. The provisional closes are showing:

  • German DAX +0.1%
  • France’s CAC, flat
  • UK’s FTSE 100 -0.4%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.80%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB -0.3%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are lower with German DAX yields down -0.5 basis points while Italian yields are down 3.0 basis points.
German DAX up marginally. France's CAC flat._
In the forex, the EUR the has taken over as the weakest of the majors from the USD. The GBP remains the strongest.

Oil climbs back above $40

Impressive rebound

The oil news flow this week has been relentlessly bearish. The EIA and OPEC reports both highlighted disappointing demand and a tip back into oversupply. There was also the BP outlook that was widely mischaracterized as predicting a peak in demand.
None of that matters today as risk trades pick up on hopes of low rates forever, more US government stimulus and a vaccine in April.
The November oil contract is up $1.54 to $40.09.

Don’t over leverage

Leverage can be a killer

Leverage can be a killer
The use of leverage is almost certainly the most important aspect of risk management. In turn proper risk management is the top priority for all traders. Or at least it ought to be.

This is the case whether you are trading for a fund, your family or even a personal account. Furthermore, whether people realise it or not, managing risk is going to be one of the single most important factors in your success or otherwise as a forex trader.

You can’t trade if you have no capital left. Many traders have over leveraged, lost all their capital and then never traded again. In contrast, the proper use of leverage will prevent you from destroying your account and preserve your capital as a trader.

Sometimes people say it is just about greed or fear. However, often times it is simply ignorance as to how leverage works.

OECD GDP projections

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
OECD was founded in 1961 to stimulate world trade and economic progress. Their latest GDP projections for this year and the next. China alone to keep in positive territory amongst the big players.
  • World GDP -4.5%, 2021 +5%
  • US GDP -3.8%, 2012+4.0%
  • Chinese GDP +1.8%, 2021 +8%
  • Euro area GDP -7.9%, 2021 +5.1%
  • Japan GDP -5.8%, 2021 +1.5%
  • UK GDP-10.1%, +7.6%
Go to top