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Verbatim: Exactly what Trump said about ‘another big jobs number’

Exactly what Trump said in the interview

Exactly what Trump said in the interview
Trump spoke with Fox & Friends yesterday and touched on the non-farm payrolls report for Friday. His comments got a wide airing because they were framed as him predicting a strong employment report.
Here’s what he actually said:
Based on all the numbers we’re getting, and you’ll have a big number on Friday. I don’t know what it’s going to be, but you’ll have another jobs number. Last two months we set a record on the job numbers. And now we will have another big job number on Friday, so it’ll be interesting to see what that is. But we are heading definitely a V.
He explicitly says he doesn’t know what the number is going to be. Now, he’s a notorious liar so I wouldn’t necessarily take that at face value.
He does say it’s ‘based on the all the numbers we’re getting’ which implies there is some data behind that conclusion but it could be no more than a read on the +1.5m consensus. That’s ‘big’ by any historical definition and the President will surely tout anything over +1m as a huge win (and why not?).
There’s been far too much emphasis on the word ‘big’. It has two definitions, one is ‘large’ but the other is ‘important’ and it’s the latter that he’s using here.

European shares end the day higher. UK FTSE leads the move

The UK FTSE rise by 1.1%

The major European indices are ending the day higher. The gains today are led by the UK FTSE 100 despite the higher GBP.
The provisional closes are showing
  • German DAX, +0.4%
  • France’s CAC, +0.8%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, +1.1%
  • Spain’s Ibex, +0.3%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, +0.8%

In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are all trading to the upside.  The UK 10 year is leading the way with a 5.2 basis point gain.

The _UK FTSE rise by 1.1%

Crude oil inventories for July 31 -7.373M vs -3.335 est.

Crude oil inventories for July 31

  • crude oil inventories -7.373M vs -3350M estimate. The drawdown is a little lower than the 8.587 from the private data last night
  • gasoline 0.419 million vs. -0.500M estimate
  • distillates 1.591M vs 0.986M estimate
  • Cushing 0.532M vs 1.309M last week
  • crude oil implied demand 18063 vs. 17762 last week
  • gasoline implied demand 9386.6 vs. 9250.1 last week
  • distillates implied demand 4812.7 vs. 4859.1 last week
  • US refinery utilization 0.10% vs. 0.20% estimate. Last week 1.6%
The price of crude oil after a brief dip is back trading near high levels for the day at $43.41. That’s up $1.71 or 4.12%. The high for the day reached $43.52. The 200 day moving average is currently at $43.92. The price of the September contract is not traded above its 200 day

The weekly oil inventory data is due out at the bottom of the hour

Private data last night showed a bigger than expected drawdown of crude inventories

The Department of Energy will release their weekly inventory data.

The private API numbers from last night showed:
  • crude oil -8.587M vs -3.35M est.
  • gasoline -1.748M vs -1.3M estimate
  • distillates +3.824M vs +100K est
  • Cushing +1.63M
The price of September WTI crude oil futures are up $1.68 or 4.03% at $43.39. The price shot through the 50% retracement of the 2020 move lower at $41.71.  The contracts 200 day moving average is at $43.92. The high price today has reached $43.52

Gold and silver continue to follow the dollar

Silver leading the charge with a 4% gain

Both gold and silver following the lower US dollar.

The US dollar has continued its moved to the downside in trading today, and gold and silver are certainly reacting.
The price of gold traded to a another new all time high price of $2048.18. The current price is trading at $2046 up 1.32% or $26.25.
Meanwhile the price of silver is currently up over $1 or 4.02% at $27.05. It’s high price reached $27.12 so far today.

EURUSD climbs towards July high. Buyers take more control today

EURUSD high from July 31 reached 1.1908.

The EURUSD is climbing higher with the end of July high price of 1.1908 (call the target 1.1900 to 1.1908) as the next major target. The high price has reached 1.1880 so far.
EURUSD high from July 31 reached 1.1908.
The horse left the bearish barn after moving back above its 100 hour moving average late yesterday and then above its swing area between 1.1801 and 1.18089 in trading today.  Stay above those technical levels kept the buyers in control and ultimately led to those buyers overwhelming the sellers and pushing the price higher.  It would take a move back below those levels to hurt the medium term bullish bias.
Taking a view of the corrective move after the surge higher in July, the price low off the correction reached down toward prior swing lows from July 28 on Monday. The price did also break below the 200 hour moving average on Monday and again on Tuesday, but despite those breaks being the 1st and 2nd since July 10, momentum faded quickly on each. The price also fell below the 38.2% retracement but that break was even more brief.
As a result, the sellers really didn’t take back control. They simply corrected a bullish move and traders have to respect that the buyers are still in control.
That tilt can change. However it would take a move back below the 100 hour moving average now to give sellers some confidence (and then a move below the 200 hour MA).  Without that, sellers are losing. The buyers are winning.

Why Africa is now the biggest new market for forex trading

Forex trading is on the rise in Africa

FX
In recent years there has been a significant rise in demand for forex trading in Africa, with the majority of the estimated 1.3 million traders in Africa residing in South Africa and Nigeria.

Not only is the number of traders and investors across Africa increasing, but the number of foreign investors is also on the rise, strengthening Africa’s currencies as well as the economy greatly.

With the South African Rand being one of the top 20 most traded currencies in the world at the moment, Africa offers one of the largest markets for forex trading globally.

Some of the world’s largest forex brokers, such as FXTM and HotForex, have become regulated with the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA) of South Africa, one of the most respected financial authorities in the industry.

With the increase in forex trading in Africa, the FSCA has responded responsibly and enforced a new licensing regime known as the Over the Counter Derivative Provider license (ODP).

The ODP forces all brokers with a local presence to provide transaction data such as price, instrument type, leverage ratios as well as the name and residence of the investor, to the FSCA to ensure safe and legal trading practices.

The FSCA allows these brokers to offer services not only in South Africa, but also to other African countries such as Nigeria, Ghana and Kenya.


The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) enforced new restriction laws on the maximum leverage ratios allowed for European traders, forcing traders to look to other markets.

These new restrictions only allow leverage ratios of 30:1 for major currency pairs, 20:1 for non-major currency pairs and gold, and 2:1 for cryptocurrencies. Leverage ratios as low as these have a massive negative impact on potential profits.

Added to this, the provision of bonuses, promotions and binary options was also banned.

The FSCA allows brokers to offer unlimited leverage ratios, which can potentially maximise funds greatly, and has led to more residents being prompted to start trading the African markets.

Although there are minor restrictions in some African countries to prevent fraudulent activities, there is no complete forex trading ban in Africa, which allows nearly anyone to profit from these ever-growing markets.

Recent lockdown measures as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and the resulting unemployment have prompted people to explore new opportunities to earn money.

The forex market is easily accessible, holds endless opportunities to make money with little required capital and traded 24 hours, five days a week, allowing people to trade either full-time or part-time.

Where forex trading was always expensive and originally done by large companies and high net-worth investors, it is now more affordable than ever, with some brokers charging no minimum deposits and minimal banking fees.

Another incentive to enter the world of forex trading is the multitude of free tools to ensure success, such as trading courses, demo accounts and webinars that educate beginners on how to trade, use strategies and analyse markets.

Trading is made easy with the internet becoming more accessible across the African continent. All one needs is a smart phone, pc, laptop or tablet, and a good internet connection, to trade from anywhere in Africa and the rest of the world.

Risk in a more cheerful spot so far on the day

European equities and US futures are keeping higher

Major European indices are keeping decent gains – a little under 1% – mid-way through London morning trade with S&P futures also seen higher by ~0.5% currently.

E-minis 05-08
All in all, this is keeping the dollar in a weaker spot as we see EUR/USD at session highs around 1.1840-45 with GBP/USD attempting to try and move back above 1.3100. Meanwhile, AUD/USD is up 0.6% and sitting just above the 0.7200 handle for now.
Elsewhere, gold continues to look perky as it keeps firmer by 0.8% to $2,035. Silver is also a standout performer, extending gains by over 2% to $26.61 currently.
In the bigger picture, Treasuries will remain a key focus to watch as we potentially start to see yields fall lower in the coming weeks:
USGG10YR
10-year yields are up by nearly 2 bps to 0.526% today but are slowly trying to clear a path under the April low at 0.539%. If Treasuries are able to rally further, that may present more mixed emotions in the market and will be something to consider – especially if 10-year yields start to track towards its March lows.
In any case, lower yields will just add to tailwinds for gold and silver in the long-term so there’s that to also consider despite some concerns about technical exhaustion this week.
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