Exactly what Trump said in the interview
Trump spoke with Fox & Friends yesterday and touched on the non-farm payrolls report for Friday. His comments got a wide airing because they were framed as him predicting a strong employment report.
Here’s what he actually said:
Based on all the numbers we’re getting, and you’ll have a big number on Friday. I don’t know what it’s going to be, but you’ll have another jobs number. Last two months we set a record on the job numbers. And now we will have another big job number on Friday, so it’ll be interesting to see what that is. But we are heading definitely a V.
He explicitly says he doesn’t know what the number is going to be. Now, he’s a notorious liar so I wouldn’t necessarily take that at face value.
He does say it’s ‘based on the all the numbers we’re getting’ which implies there is some data behind that conclusion but it could be no more than a read on the +1.5m consensus. That’s ‘big’ by any historical definition and the President will surely tout anything over +1m as a huge win (and why not?).
There’s been far too much emphasis on the word ‘big’. It has two definitions, one is ‘large’ but the other is ‘important’ and it’s the latter that he’s using here.