Archives of “July 2020” month

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Trump has a 91% chance of winning the November 2020 election says Primary Model

  
Analysis, Politics

The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

  • has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996
  • Norpoth says his model would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912
His model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests
The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

China has been buying USD as its become cheaper

  
  Analysis

Spokesperson Wang Chunying for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of the People’s Republic of China

  • says the decline in the value of the USD is one of the factors that has seen China growing its foreign reserves
Foreign exchange reserves held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased to $3.1123 trillion at the end of June, up 0.3% (an increase of $10.6 billion) from the end of May
The gain in reserves may come in handy if Trump’s White House follows through on some chatter that its seeking to undermine Hong Kong’s currency peg in retaliation for China’s imposition of a new security law.

A ‘death cross’ for the USD

  
Analysis, Forex
(ps. a Death Cross is when the 50-day MA crosses to underneath the 200-day moving average … or so I am told 😀 )
BoA add that on  9 occasions since 1980 when the DC has occurred 8 times USD weakness followed.
—
I guess if you are looking for fundamentals to support a lower US dollar they are not difficult to come across:
  • the neglectful and inept government response to the coronavirus pandemic in the US
  • the riots, which have since subsided
  • US election uncertainty
  • political fragmentation being stoked and accelerating
  • Europe is on a much better recovery path, positive for EUR/USD
 death cross

US stocks finish strong after late-day rally

  
Analysis, US Market

Stocks were flat until the final hour of trading

Stocks were flat until the final hour of trading
The S&P 500 hit a session high of 3172 in the first hour of the day and then gave it all back at lunchtime. However it rallied in the final hour led by tech (what else) to finish just shy of the morning high.
  • S&P 500 up 25 points to 3170 (+0.8%)
  • DJIA up 0.7%
  • Nasdaq +1.4%
  • Russell 2000 +0.4%
Apple hit a record high just before the close.

USDJPY moves closer to the low extreme over the last 5-6 days

  
Analysis, Forex

Range is only 54 pips over since July 1

The USDJPY moved below and stayed below its 100/200 hour moving averages at the 107.52 area and stayed below. That give sellers the go ahead to push lower.  The overall dollar selling also has helped the bias (in a more limited move however compared to other currencies).
Range is only 54 pips over since July 1
The fall has taken the price to 107.28. That is just above the swing lows from Monday and Tuesday between 107.239 and 107.25.
The range since July 1 has only been 54 pips with a low at 107.24 and a high at 107.78.  Moving below the lower extreme should open up the door for a test of the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 23 low. That level comes in at 107.112.
The range for the day is now 42 pips. The average over the last month of trading is 59 pips. So there is room to roam on a break. However, that requires a break below the week’s lows.

European shares end mostly lower on the day

  
Analysis, Global Indices

The fall in US stocks stabilizes.

With the press conference from VP Pence more up beat on states like Arizona and Florida has helped to push stocks back in the black. The S&P index is currently up 0.15%.  The dow is up 0.03%. The NASDAQ remained a positive although the low percentage got down to +0.07%. The index is currently up 0.75%.
In Europe today, the major indices closed mostly lower with the exception being Portugal with a gain of 0.54%. The declines were led by Spain which fell -1.62%. The final numbers are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.97%
  • France’s CAC, -1.24%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -0.55%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.62%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.57%
  • Portugal’s PSI 20, +0.54%
The fall in US stocks stabilizes.
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