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Oil falls 2.5% in worst decline since July 7

Oil defensive today

Oil defensive today
Last week it looked like crude might break above the range around $40 but it’s been sucked back lower and is in danger of falling back to $40.
The drop today is really a macro story with risk trades struggling broadly on fears about slowing consumer demand and virus flare ups in a number of countries.
A break below $40 could spark a run on stops at the late-July low of $39.83.

Trump floats the idea of delaying the US election

That’s a big change

For all the people who were worried about Trump calling off the election, this is some hard evidence.
With Universal Mail-In Voting (not Absentee Voting, which is good), 2020 will be the most INACCURATE & FRAUDULENT Election in history. It will be a great embarrassment to the USA. Delay the Election until people can properly, securely and safely vote???
I’m not a constitutional expert but I believe the November 3 election date is locked in with virtually no flexibility. But he sure is laying the groundwork for questioning the results or refusing to leave if he loses.
The market can ignore a lot of talk from Trump but there’s a limit and this is getting closer to it.

US five-year yields hit a fresh record low as bonds rally

The bond market isn’t sending a great message

The bond market isn't sending a great message
If you believe that the bond market still means something, then buckle up. Treasury yields are lower across the curve today but 5-year yields are particularly notable because they’ve hit an all-time low for the second day. Today they’re down 1.7 bps to a low of 0.2343%.
Zooming out a bit, 10-year yields are also threatening major support. The April low was 0.5394% and we’re at 0.5478%. A close here would be the second-lowest on record after the March 9 spike low.
Equity futures have also taken a negative tone with S&P 500 futures down 25 points after yesterday’s 40-point gain.

Global Times: US government helped the coronavirus kill as many American people as possible

Hu Xijin is Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times

Says the
Novel coronavirus will present a medal to US government, for this government standing firmly with the virus, helping it kill as many American people as possible. Most of the US senior officials will be safe because the virus needs them.
Hu Xijin is Editor-in-chief of Chinese and English editions of the Global Times
This account is a good indicator of the state of US-China relations, which, as you can see, are at a low ebb.

More info on that Russian COVID-19 vaccine: 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide

The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

Head of its sovereign wealth fund Kirill Dmitriev, chief executive of the Russian Direct Investment Fund, which is financing the country’s vaccine research:
  • Russia aims to secure approval for the first Covid-19 vaccine in the first two weeks of August
  • expects to produce 30 million doses in Russia by end of year and 170 million worldwide
The Russian vaccine speculation is not new, but here is more on it if you need.

Recap of the FOMC, “as expected” … but US Congress fiscal policy remains an unknown

Via CIBC Research on Wednesday’s FOMC policy statement.

“Today’s FOMC announcement unfolded largely as expected, with policymakers commenting that economic activity and employment remain well below where they stood prior to the pandemic, despite picking up somewhat in recent months. Indeed, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain since the last meeting on account of the surge in virus cases and the re-tightening of social distancing in many states, with the Fed noting that the path forward for the economy depends significantly on the virus which is expected to weigh heavily on activity in the near term. While the Fed stands ready to do more to support the recovery, as shown by the extension in several credit facilities beyond their initial deadlines, the fiscal support package being discussed by Congress remains an unknown” 

“As a result, they appear to have opted to wait for the September meeting, when the next set of forecasts are due, to provide more concrete forward guidance on future rate hikes by perhaps tying them to the outcome of a macro variable. Tomorrow’s Q2 GDP report will provide a starting point for assessing the scale of the output gap” 

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