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Yen continues to firm as Treasury yields fall further on the session

US 5-year yields fall to a record low of 0.255%

Meanwhile, 10-year yields are seen lower by 2 bps to 0.558% and that is weighing across yen pairs as the bond market is looking to make waves towards the end of the week.
As warned earlier, this is one spot to watch ahead of the weekend as a break below the floor of around 0.54% to 0.56% in 10-year yields could lead to a fresh wave of bids in the yen – especially if USD/JPY slips back under the 106.00 handle as well.

Chinese equities close sharply lower to end the week

CSI 300 index fell by 4.4% in trading today

Meanwhile, the Shanghai Composite index also fell by 3.9% but despite the sharp drop in trading today, the weekly performance isn’t that bad for Chinese equities.

On the week, the CSI 300 index is down by 0.9% and from a technical perspective it managed to avoid a key break of recent technical support @ 4,485.82:
CSI 300

“What Buffett wouldn’t do”

Warren Buffett (@WarrenBuffett) | TwitterInvesting:

  • Don’t be too fixated on daily moves in the stock market (from Berkshire letter published in 2014)
  • Don’t get excited about your investment gains when the market is climbing (1996)
  • Don’t be distracted by macroeconomic forecasts (2004)
  • Don’t limit yourself to just one industry (2008)
  • Don’t get taken by formulas (2009)
  • Don’t be short on cash when you need it most (2010)
  • Don’t wager against the U.S. and its economic potential (2015)

Management:

  • Don’t beat yourself up over wrong decisions; take responsibility for them (2001)
  • Don’t have mandatory retirement ages (1992)
  • “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut” because the answer will be what’s best for the man with the scissors (1983)
  • Don’t dawdle (2006)
  • Don’t interfere with great managers (1994)
  • Don’t succumb to the attitudes that undermine businesses (2015)
  • Don’t be greedy about compensation, if you’re my successor (2015)

Last, Buffett advises “Don’t worry about my health” — because Berkshire’s future success is is tied to reinsurance lieutenant Ajit Jain. “Worry about his.” (2001)

China says that responsibility of the situation rests entirely with the US

Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

China
  • Current situation is something China does not want to see
  • Urges the US to revoke its ‘wrong’ decision
  • Calls for US to create necessary conditions for return of bilateral relations
Some accompanying remarks to their decision to call for the US to shut its consulate in Chengdu. Risk trades saw a slight dip on the headline but barring any further escalation by the US, the narrative here will quickly grow a little stale.
For now, it is still creating some sense of nervousness following the selloff in US stocks overnight – not to mention the decline in Chinese equities today.
AUD/USD is down to session lows of 0.7083, and testing waters under its 100-hour moving average at 0.7090. Keep below that and the near-term bias turns more neutral.

More on that EUR/USD forecasts raised …. to 1.12! (not a typo)

Bank of America Global Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and now targets the pair at 1.12 in Q3 and 1.08 by year-end.

EURUSD is close to its high for the year. We remain sceptical. The market is long EURUSD and this position could be at risk, particularly for real money. We expect a weak recovery of the global economy during re-opening and dont see full normalization as long as the virus is a threat. The EU Recovery Fund is a positive step, but far from a game changer in our view, an 1-off increase in the EU budget that allows the EU to catch up to the fiscal stimulus other G10 economies have been doingwith the US doing more. Although the US recovery may slow in the months ahead, we do not expect another shutdown,” BofA notes. 

“As the market has moved in a different direction from our forecasts, we update our forecasts, marking to market. We now expect EURUSD at 1.12 in Q3 from 1.08 before and 1.08 in Q4 from 1.05 before. We keep our 2021 EURUSD forecast at 1.15.We therefore retain a bearish EURUSD bias, to a large extent because of our positive USD view, which in turn is based on a bearish outlook for the global economy,” BofA adds. 

I posted earlier on BoA and their EUR forecast out to year end:

China says can expel hundreds of US “diplomats” who actually worked for CIA in Chinese mainland

Via the Global Times: China can consider targeted strike to retaliate the US on the forced closure of the consulate in Houston

  • expelling hundreds or even more US “diplomats” who actually worked for CIA in Chinese mainland and Hong Kong
GT citing a research fellow at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing
Via the Global Times: China can consider targeted strike to retaliate the US on the forced closure of the consulate in Houston

FT report “US stimulus delays as Republican talks fall into disarray”

The ongoing bickering and war of words in the Republican senate has delayed any action on further stimulus.

This earlier – they won’t even get a rough outline until next week let alone any action:
  • US Senate leader McConnell says will introduce ‘framework’ for recovery bill “early next week”

Financial Times have a report up on the delays, link is here (may be gated)

  • Mitch McConnell, the Republican Senate majority leader, had been expected to announce the party’s stimulus proposal on Thursday morning, only to reverse course later in the day and announce the plan would not come until next week.
Getting the stimulus done is in Republican interest, any support for the economy will be welcomed by Trump’s re-election campaign.
The ongoing bickering and war of words in the Republican senate has delayed any action on further stimulus.
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