The bearish technical case for the dollar appears to be growing.  It is a little disconcerting that it seems to have become the consensus view, and the gross and net long speculative euro positioning in the futures market is near two-year highs.  However, the speculative positioning in the other currency futures is not nearly as extreme.  Indeed, speculators are still net short sterling, Australian dollar, and Canadian dollar.

Turns in the market often appear to have a cascading effect.  The turn does not happen all at once.  Given that the euro is the single most important currency in the world after the dollar, that is the real interest.  The Swiss Franc can sometimes be seen as its lead indicators. The Golden Cross (50 and 200-day moving averages) crossed down for last July.  The euro’s averages crossed late last month, and at the start of last week, the 50-day moving average moved below the 200-day moving for the Dollar Index.  The moving average for the Swedish krona crossed in the middle of June, while the  Aussie’s averages crossed on the last session in June.