Archives of “July 9, 2020” day

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Psychological Risk Management

  
Analysis, Education
  • If you’re out of balance, you’re going to make bad decisions, and trading the market is a decision game
    • If you’re overtrading, you’re out of balanceRisk Management, Risk Assessment or Risk Analysis | I.S. Partners
    • If you’re overcommited, you’re out of balance.
    • If your dollar risk is too high, you’re out of balance.
    • If you’re hung over, you’re out of balance.
    • If you’re sick, you’re out of balance.
    • If you need the money, you’re out of balance.
    • If you make too much money, you’re out of balance.
    • You’ve got to take time off. You can’t trade every day.
  • Pay more attention when you account size gets bigger
    • I’ve noticed over the years that when my account has been small for whatever reason, I have been really careful with it. I watch it like a hawk. When my account gets rich, I tend to fall into a habit of neglect. I’m making money. I have profits, and I’m more comfortable. I don’t keep as close an eye on it. That’s very foolish.
  • Take profits out of your account
    • You should spend some profits rather than letting the money stay in your account indefinitely. That’s been important to me over the years. I withdraw money from time to time and take a vacation or buy a new car. From a behaviorist’s standpoint, it gives a sense of reward. It provides conscious and subconscious motivation.

Trump has a 91% chance of winning the November 2020 election says Primary Model

  
Analysis, Politics

The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

  • has correctly predicted five out of six elections since 1996
  • Norpoth says his model would have correctly predicted the outcome for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912
His model calculates the winning candidate based on early presidential nominating contests
The Primary Model is the work of Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth

China has been buying USD as its become cheaper

  
  Analysis

Spokesperson Wang Chunying for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) of the People’s Republic of China

  • says the decline in the value of the USD is one of the factors that has seen China growing its foreign reserves
Foreign exchange reserves held by the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) increased to $3.1123 trillion at the end of June, up 0.3% (an increase of $10.6 billion) from the end of May
The gain in reserves may come in handy if Trump’s White House follows through on some chatter that its seeking to undermine Hong Kong’s currency peg in retaliation for China’s imposition of a new security law.

A ‘death cross’ for the USD

  
Analysis, Forex
(ps. a Death Cross is when the 50-day MA crosses to underneath the 200-day moving average … or so I am told 😀 )
BoA add that on  9 occasions since 1980 when the DC has occurred 8 times USD weakness followed.
—
I guess if you are looking for fundamentals to support a lower US dollar they are not difficult to come across:
  • the neglectful and inept government response to the coronavirus pandemic in the US
  • the riots, which have since subsided
  • US election uncertainty
  • political fragmentation being stoked and accelerating
  • Europe is on a much better recovery path, positive for EUR/USD
 death cross

US stocks finish strong after late-day rally

  
Analysis, US Market

Stocks were flat until the final hour of trading

Stocks were flat until the final hour of trading
The S&P 500 hit a session high of 3172 in the first hour of the day and then gave it all back at lunchtime. However it rallied in the final hour led by tech (what else) to finish just shy of the morning high.
  • S&P 500 up 25 points to 3170 (+0.8%)
  • DJIA up 0.7%
  • Nasdaq +1.4%
  • Russell 2000 +0.4%
Apple hit a record high just before the close.
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