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European shares end the session mostly lower

UK FTSE 100 the weakest. Portugal’s PSI 20 strongest

The major European indices are ending the session mostly lower. The UK FTSE 100 was the weakest of the major indices. The Portuguese PSI 120 was the strongest.  Italy’s FTSE MIB was unchanged.

The final numbers are showing:
  • German DAX, -0.92%
  • France’s CAC, -0.66%
  • UK’s FTSE 100, -1.46%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -1.27%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB unchanged
  • Portugal’s PSI 120+0.89%
Below are the percentage changes including the percentage high and percentage low ranges for the trading day today.
UK FTSE 100 the weakest. Portugal's PSI 20 strongest_In the US market, the NASDAQ index remains higher. The S&P index did move into the black briefly, but the Dow industrial average remains negative on the day at -0.69%. The S&P index and NASDAQ index are on a 5 day winning streak.
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are mixed/mostly lower. German yields rose 0.4 basis points. France 10 year yields are unchanged. The rest of the major countries saw yields decline with Italy down -3.6 basis points on the day.
European benchmark yields

12 Top Jim Simons Trading Quotes

Jim Simons

Jim Simons is a hedge fund manager and a mathematician. He is a quantitative investor and the founder of the hedge fund Renaissance Technologies. His hedge fun specializes in systematic trading using quantitative models derived from mathematical and statistical analyses. Mr. Simons primary models were on pattern recognition. He  contributed to the development of string theory by providing a theoretical framework to combine geometry and topology with quantum field theory. Jim Simons was a mathematics professor from 1968 to 1978, and chair of the mathematics department at Stony Brook University. He founded his hedge fund in 1982. His net worth is currently estimated at $21.5 billion.

“Renaissance’s flagship Medallion fund, which is run mostly for fund employees, “Is famed for one of the best records in investing history, returning more than 35 percent annualized over a 20-year span”. From 1994 through mid-2014 it averaged a 71.8% annual return.Renaissance offers two portfolios to outside investors—Renaissance Institutional Equities Fund (RIEF) and Renaissance Institutional Diversified Alpha (RIDA).” via Wikipedia 

Here are some of his top trading quotes that distill some of his wisdom:

“We search through historical data looking for anomalous patterns that we would not expect to occur at random.” – Jim Simons 

“Patterns of price movement are not random. However, they’re close enough to random so that getting some excess, some edge out of it, is not easy and not so obvious-thank God. God probably doesn’t care. Thank whoever.” – Jim Simons 

“Past performance is the best predictor of success.” – Jim Simons

“The system is always leaking, and we keep having to add water to keep it ahead of the game.” – Jim Simons

“I wasn’t the fastest guy in the world. I wouldn’t have done well in an Olympiad or a math contest. But I like to ponder. And pondering things, just sort of thinking about it and thinking about it, turns out to be a pretty good approach.’ – Jim Simons

“One can predict the course of a comet more easily than one can predict the course of Citigroup’s stock. The attractiveness, of course, is that you can make more money successfully predicting a stock than you can a comet.” – Jim Simons

It’s supply and demand. If gold is discovered, then it gets harder to make money mining gold because everyone’s competing with you.” – Jim Simons 

“We have three criteria: If it’s publicly traded, liquid and amenable to modeling, we trade it.” – Jim Simons 

There’s no such thing as the goose that lays the golden egg forever.” – Jim Simons

“In this business it’s easy to confuse luck with brains.” – Jim Simons

“The things we are doing will not go away. We may have bad years, we may have a terrible year sometimes. But the principles we’ve discovered are valid.” – Jim Simons

 “We don’t override the models.” – Jim Simons

European Commission forecasts deeper slump amid ‘more pronounced’ economic divergences

EU now sees 2020 GDP at -8.7% vs -7.7% back in the May forecast

  • Euro area economy probably shrank by 13.5% in Q2
  • Economic recovery will be uneven across member states
  • There are ‘sever’ risks to the economic outlook, tilted to the downside
  • Euro area economic divergences are ‘more pronounced’
  • Spain, France, Italy economies likely to shrink by more than 10% in 2020
  • German economy likely to shrink by 6.3% in 2020

That isn’t quite comforting news for the euro but make no mistake, this will start to present a problem for the region in the months/years ahead.

The imbalance in terms of economic welfare and how hard member states are hit from the virus outbreak is going to grow and cause a divergence in terms of policy views that should be adopted by the bloc.
The commission also stressed on the urgency for a recovery fund as such, but don’t expect that sentiment to translate into a sure-fire compromise going into the 17-18 July meeting.

Iron Ore headed for downside?

Iron ore has negative factors now

This week sees risk for Iron ore losing more ground. The factors are stacking up in favour of a falling second half of the year for the commodity The factors that boosted Iron Ore for the first half of the year are now reducing. Here are some of the bearish factors indicated by Bloomberg’s market’s live blog:
1. China’s steel industry PMI has fallen back into contractionary territory.
2. The vessel -tracking data pointed to rising exports and;
3. China’s port holdings have now expanded for a third week
4. The Brazilian miner Vale is confident that despite he pandemic it can still bring a lot of Iron Ore to market in the second half of the year. Accroding to CFO Luciano Siani Pires this means that Iron Ore prices should fall.
5. Australia’s Port Headland, which is the main maritime gateway to the nation’s mighty Pilbara mining headland, is expected to release record levels for June flows.
So, the tightness in the Iron Ore market which was characteristic of the first half of the year looks like dissipating into the second half of 2020. Expect sellers on any retracements higher as long as this remains the case
Iron ore has negative factors now 

Ifo says that German industrial firms expect production to rise in the coming months

Ifo remarks based on their latest production index in June

The index rose from -19.5 in May to +4.3 in June, marking its second biggest increase with industrial firms in Germany stating that they expect a further increase in production over the next three months.
That is a bit of a positive takeaway at least. Do note that the German industrial output figures for May are due at the top of the hour and should show a decent rebound from April but overall conditions should remain more subdued relative to a year ago.

Full statement of the RBA July monetary policy decision

The full statement of the 7 July monetary policy decision by the RBA

At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the current policy settings, including the targets for the cash rate and the yield on 3-year Australian Government bonds of 25 basis points.

The global economy has experienced a severe downturn as countries seek to contain the coronavirus. Many people have lost their jobs and there has been a sharp rise in unemployment. Leading indicators have generally picked up recently, suggesting the worst of the global economic contraction has now passed. Despite this, the outlook remains uncertain and the recovery is expected to be bumpy and will depend upon containment of the coronavirus. Over the past month, infection rates have declined in many countries, but they are still very high and rising in others.

Globally, conditions in financial markets have improved. Volatility has declined and there have been large raisings of both debt and equity. The prices of many assets have risen substantially despite the high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. Bond yields remain at historically low levels.

In Australia, the government bond markets are operating effectively and the yield on 3-year Australian Government Securities (AGS) is at the target of around 25 basis points. Given these developments, the Bank has not purchased government bonds for some time, with total purchases to date of around $50 billion. The Bank is prepared to scale-up its bond purchases again and will do whatever is necessary to ensure bond markets remain functional and to achieve the yield target for 3-year AGS. The yield target will remain in place until progress is being made towards the goals for full employment and inflation.

The Bank’s market operations are continuing to support a high level of liquidity in the Australian financial system. Authorised deposit-taking institutions are continuing to draw on the Term Funding Facility, with total drawings to date of around $15 billion. Further use of this facility is expected over coming months. (more…)

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