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US dollar buying ebbs even with stocks touching a new low

Dollar sellers arrive

Dollar selling has picked up after Europe closed for the week. USD/CAD is about 30 pips off the highs even with stocks near the lows.
Dollar sellers arrive
This could be FX leading a turn in the risk trade or it could be flows.
I’m sympathetic to the idea that the US can uniquely under-perform because the virus is hitting the US so much harder than other developed countries. The bond market is also weighing, with US 2-year yields down 2 bps to 0.16%.

China warns that ‘meddling’ in Hong Kong could jeopardize Phase One deal

WSJ report

From the report:
Beijing has begun quietly delivering a message to Washington: U.S. pressure over matters China considers off limits could jeopardize Chinese purchases of farm goods and other U.S. exports under the “Phase One” trade deal.
This doesn’t sound like they’re on the brink of any action but it’s not a good sign for relations.
While Mr. Yang reiterated Beijing’s commitment to carrying out the trade deal, he stressed that both sides had to “work together,” said people familiar with the conversations. A Chinese official said that meant “the U.S. side should refrain from going too far with meddling.” The official added, “Red lines shouldn’t be crossed.”
Trump calling it the ChinaVirus and Navarro comparing the virus to the Pearl Harbor attacks isn’t exactly conductive to cooperation.

Texas COVID-19 hospitalizations +7.7% vs +8.0% yesterday

Texas coronavirus hopsitalization data

  • Hospitalizations for coronavirus at 5100 now vs 4739 yesterday
  • 15th straight day of rising hospitalizations
Plenty of people point out that there is still plenty of excess capacity but if you keep adding 360 patients each day, it runs out quickly.
I’m not 100% confident in the source of this but it’s from @ransquawk and they’ve nailed these recently.
A separate report says Harris County, Texas will declare a top-level emergency. Houston is in Harris County.

US president Trump: Economy is roaring back and will not be shut down

Trump is adamant that the coronavirus situation in the US is under control

Coronavirus deaths are way down. Mortality rate is one of the lowest in the World. Our Economy is roaring back and will NOT be shut down. “Embers” or flare ups will be put out, as necessary!

Well, it starts with a rise in cases followed by an overburden of medical capacity and then you’ll start to see the mortality rate spike again. I mean, there’s already a precedent as we saw many countries went through this back in March and April. Geez.

But I guess the takeaway for the stock market here is that there will be no major economic shutdown, then again the fear of the virus is something that matters a great deal too.

Federal Reserve has banned bank share buybacks Q3

The Fed has barred the 34 largest banks from share buybacks  in Q3

  • And has also capped dividend payments at Q2 levels

The Fed says it is capping dividends following Covid-19 sensitivity analysis to ‘ensure large banks remain resilient despite the economic uncertainty’

The suspension of stock buybacks and capping dividends to shareholders is to help ensure the banks have enough loss-absorbing capital to keep lending during the pandemic. In addition, the Fed is requiring all 34 big banks that participated in the stress tests to resubmit their capital plans due to the economic outlook being so uncertain. In previous years, that’s only been required for banks that didn’t pass the tests – its all of them this time around.
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