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EU leaders talks end with no agreement on recovery package, euro slides

EUR/USD down to 1.0788

Another day, another meeting, another failure to agree.
The good news is that the did agree on the need for coronavirus recovery support but they tasked the EU Commission to assets the needs and propose a way to finance it.
This is the EU’s version of ‘we’ve decided to study it’. The market doesn’t want a study, it wants action but the differences and structure of the eurozone make it so difficult. The euro truly was a 21st century solution to 20th century problems. We’re now in the era of debt monetization and European countries can’t participate.

Gildead drug Remdesivir flops in first trial – report

Stocks fall on the report

The FT is out with a report. This news has taken down the entire market and USD/JPY.
From the FT, which cites WHO documents that were briefly and mistakenly published on the WHO website.
A potential antiviral drug for the coronavirus has flopped in its first randomised clinical trial, disappointing scientists and investors who had high hopes for remdesivir, according to draft documents published accidentally by the World Health Organization and seen by the Financial Times.The Chinese trial showed remdesivir – developed by California-based Gilead Sciences – did not improve patients’ condition or reduce the pathogen’s presence in the bloodstream. Researchers studied 237 patients, giving the drug to 158 and comparing their progress with the remaining 79.

Armageddon in the oil market reportedly cost Bank of China customers $85 million

A painful lesson for retail investors

Margin

The outrage against the Bank of China has been a trending topic on social media this week, as thousands of retail investors saw their life savings vanquished in betting on the oil market via the bank’s wealth management products.

These things were marketed with names like “crude oil treasure” before the Bank of China joined other major institutions to suspend trading and sales of such products after the wipeout in the market saw oil prices turn negative in the May futures contract.
The investors were betting on an increase in prices but were caught out as the front month contract at the time crashed hard and hit negative for the first time ever.
Bloomberg is reporting that the Bank of China settled the May futures contract for the product at the Monday close of around -$37.63 per barrel, resulting in $28 million of initial losses and a further $57 million as prices plunged into negative territory.
It is such a shame that many of the investors involved in this incident will see everything taken away from them in just one day. But it is a reminder to those new in the market that there is a difference between investing/trading and gambling.
If you do not understand the rules and when you are faced with a heap of uncertainty, it creates fear. And fear is the number one enemy of every investor/trader.
When we are fearful, we make bad decisions that we otherwise would not normally make. In this example, perhaps the Bank of China is also partly at fault but when you do not understand the magnitude of the risks involved, you are gambling with your luck.
In this case, these people were caught on the wrong side of the trade as the market did not agree with their view. And by not understanding the risks associated with the product, they were not able to define and limit their risk levels accordingly.
It is an extremely painful lesson for those involved but it is one that we can learn from and apply to other areas in our trading.

Swiss government now sees 2020 GDP down 6.7% compared to -1.5% previously

Swiss government out with new forecasts

  • Sees 2020 jobless rate at 3.9% and 2021 at 4.1%
  • Sees economy rebounding 5.2% in 2021 vs -3.3% previously
  • Sees ‘significantly greater risk’ of pressure on the franc

Forecasting is a fool’s game right now. There was hardly an economist in the world that was remotely close to the PMI numbers in Europe that were just released. That said, there’s this strong consensus among economists about big bounces in 2021 and a strong consensus from scientists that COVID-19 isn’t going away next year. That’s tough to square.

Japan government offers bleakest view of the economy since the global financial crisis

Japan downgrades its economic assessment for a second straight month

Japan

The government says that “the economy is worsening rapidly and is under an extremely severe situation due to the coronavirus”, adding that “economic conditions will likely remain extremely severe”; essentially its bleakest outlook since May 2009.

The government also downgraded its view on consumption, production, jobs and corporate earnings as well.
This isn’t so much of a surprise as this is arguably one of the most unprecedented shocks faced by most economies across the globe, like ever.
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