Thought For A Day
Archives of “March 2020” month
rssHERE’S SOMETHING Two-year Treasuries are most overbought since **1980**
Stop it, money markets! The Fed is not going to cut by that much in a single meeting
Peru silver production
OPEC+ meetings reportedly to go ahead as planned on 5-6 March in Vienna
Reuters reports, citing two OPEC sources on the matter
I don’t think anyone would expect the meeting to be postponed. The plunge in oil prices will be inevitable if they don’t come up with anything this week.
European equities start to see gains erode
DAX turns negative, Stoxx 600 turns flat on the day
Trouble in paradise? Both were up by a little over 2% to start the European morning but we are seeing the market turn tail and run with USD/CHF slipping back close to 0.9600.
US futures have also seen gains from the early European morning peter out, with E-minis just up by ~0.5% currently. USD/JPY is also back lower now to 107.75 after having hit a high of 108.58 just two hours ago.
The market is still holding out hope for global central bank stimulus, but as highlighted here, it may not necessarily be the solution to dig investors out of the hole.
OECD cuts 2020 global economic forecast to 2.4% from 2.9% previously
OECD warns that the global economy may shrink in Q1 2020
This follows their November forecast here previously. Notably, they have slashed China’s growth forecast to 4.9% from 5.7% previously. Meanwhile, in the US they forecast a 1.9% growth for the year – slightly lower by 2.0% previously.
As for the euro area, OECD sees growth of 0.8% this year, down from 1.1% previously. They note that the forecasts are currently based on the coronavirus epidemic peaking this quarter and says Japan and Europe risks a recession in their downside scenario.
SNB total sight deposits w.e. 28 February CHF 595.8 bn vs CHF 592.3 bn prior
Latest data released by the SNB – 2 March 2020
- Domestic sight deposits CHF 502.2 bn vs CHF 500.6 bn prior
Prior week’s release can be found here. A bit of a jump in overall sight deposits and that suggests some potential intervention by the SNB to smooth out the appreciation in the franc considering the market happenings last week.
Eurozone February final manufacturing PMI 49.2 vs 49.1 prelim
Latest data released by Markit – 2 March 2020
The preliminary release can be found here. Little change of note relative to initial estimates and this also just reaffirms some mild improvement – not significant – in factory activity with supply chain disruptions being the standout issue in the report for last month.
BREAKING : The BOJ bought a record amount of ETFs today
The total amounted to ¥101.4 billion, the most since the central bank began to intervene in the stock fund market in December 2010
This comes after BOJ governor Kuroda’s pledge to keep liquidity conditions ample and while they continue to insist that this move is aimed at lowering risk premiums, let’s be real. There’s only one reason why they are doing this.