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Bank of Canada full rate statement from the March 27 rate cut

Bank of Canada cuts rates by the 50 basis points to 0.25%

The full statement from the Bank of Canada:

The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The spread of COVID-19 is having serious consequences for Canadians and for the economy, as is the abrupt decline in world oil prices. The pandemic-driven contraction has prompted decisive fiscal policy action in Canada to support individuals and businesses and to minimize any permanent damage to the structure of the economy.

The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy.

The Bank’s efforts have been primarily focused on ensuring the availability of credit by providing liquidity to help markets continue to function.  To promote credit availability, the Bank has expanded its various term repo facilities. To preserve market function, the Bank is conducting Government of Canada bond buybacks and switches, purchases of Canada Mortgage Bonds and banker’s acceptances, and purchases of provincial money market instruments. All these additional measures have been detailed on the Bank’s website and will be extended or augmented as needed.

Today, the Bank is launching two new programs.

First, the Commercial Paper Purchase Program (CPPP) will help to alleviate strains in short-term funding markets and thereby preserve a key source of funding for businesses. Details of the program will be available on the Bank’s web site.

Second, to address strains in the Government of Canada debt market and to enhance the effectiveness of all other actions taken so far, the Bank will begin acquiring Government of Canada securities in the secondary market. Purchases will begin with a minimum of $5 billion per week, across the yield curve. The program will be adjusted as conditions warrant, but will continue until the economic recovery is well underway. The Bank’s balance sheet will expand as a result of these purchases.

The Bank is closely monitoring economic and financial conditions, in coordination with other G7 central banks and fiscal authorities, and will update its outlook in mid-April. As the situation evolves, Governing Council stands ready to take further action as required to support the Canadian economy and financial system and to keep inflation on target.

(more…)

Bank of Canada cuts rates to 0.25%, launches QE program

BOC cuts to 0.25% from 0.75%

Poloz
At 0.75% before today the Bank of Canada was the highest among developed central banks. US T-bills were negative but Canadian equivalents still had a ‘decent’ yield at around 0.5% out to six months. That may have been a factor in the loonie’s strength this week but the currency is lower on this (although still much higher than it was at the start of the week).
USD/CAD is trading at 1.4140 from a low of 1.3390 earlier today.
USDCAD d
Meanwhile, oil continues to crater and is down 3.3% today. With global growth in big trouble, Canadian exports are going to be hard hit and the country is likely to fall into a tough recession.
What I worry about right now is the Canadian mortgage market and Canadian banks. Canada’s largest bank — RBC — was sued yesterday for putting a margin call on a REIT’s CMBS and plans to auction them off. Other banks haven’t taken those kinds of actions but RBC balked and you have to wonder if that’s just being predatory or if they are facing their own problems. The BOC yesterday also launched a plan to buy corporate bonds.

BOC launches QE and a commercial paper program

The Bank of Canada also crossed the threshold into quantitative easing today for the first time. They will buy ‘a minimum’ of $5B per week across the curve and will continue “until the economic recovery is well underway.”
They will also buying commercial paper in a separate program.

Tokyo governor confirms another 40 new coronavirus cases in the city today

Tokyo governor, Yuriko Koike, delivers a press conference

This is roughly consistent with the 41 new cases reported on Wednesday and the 47 new cases reported on Thursday. With little details being offered, it is tough to say how much more they are testing currently compared to a week ago.

But the increase today will bring the total number of confirmed cases to about 300 in Tokyo as the government mulls over whether or not to declare a state of emergency.

JP Morgan on the US: “We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March”

JPM:
  • We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
  • Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
  • We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
  • Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25

German Chancellor Merkel: Impact of coronavirus likely to be bigger than financial crisis

Also –

  • We have asked Euro zone finance ministers to work out within two weeks the technical details of bailout fund credit lines for euro zone to fight coronavirus
  • for Germany, ESM bailout fund is the main instrument to help other European countries in coronavirus crisis
  •  asked on Eurobonds, says ESM is giving enough scope to react without giving up fundamental principles
Comments too from US president Trump:
  • Had a great meeting with G20 leaders

3 reasons why USD/JPY is heading back down to 105

A note via ING forecasting lower for USD/JPY, to 105 in three months

(1) Japan’s GPIF probably will not pour money into overseas bonds when $/JPY is above 110
(2) the rally to 112 was largely down to USD funding strains, which should reverse into April
(3) Japan’s large current account surplus will see JPY favoured in a recession.
Its a detailed note, but this snippet on point2:
  • Amongst many fire-fighting measures, the Fed and the US Treasury have since re-introduced schemes to support the CP market directly (CPFF & MMLF) and measures to support investment grade corporate issuance (PMCCF and SMCCF)
  • Along with the promise for unlimited QE, the Fed has managed to introduce some calm into money markets
  • We expect even calmer conditions once the Japanese financial year-end has passed (March 31st) and the Fed starts its CPFF program in April. A turn-around in the basis swap should take some upside pressure off USD/JPY. 
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